The Study Of Status Quo And Development Of The Health Human Resource In Hebei Province

In order to provide scientific information for projecting health human resource,optimizing allocation and reforming the personnel system of Hebei province, this study, by analyzing analysis the status quo of health human resource(HHR) of Hebei province, was trying to find out the problems which have existed in HHR, and proposing the corresponding countermeasures. Then the feasible forecasting model that adapted to the development of HHR in Hebei province was built on the base of the current status. Since then, forecast the demand of HHR at three different stages used this new model. Firstly, we forecasted the total number of HHR among sorts of health specialty according to the proportion. Secondly, we got the age distribution of HHR and the real amount of HHR in Hebei Province by age-moving method. Finally, we tested that it is feasible to forecast HHR by the forecasting model.The results of the status quo indicated that the total number of Hebei Provincial HHR was mainly sufficient to need of the local people. But there are some problems. The quality of Hebei provincial HHR isn't high relatively, andthe educational level is also low. The distribution of HHR in Hebei province has significant difference. The proportion between doctors and nurses isn't reasonable. There is shorter of the departmental leading specialist. The brain drain has been serious.The study showed that economic and social factors are the primary reasons that caused the imbalance of HHR and the brain drain of Hebei Province.So some countermeasures were put forward. The view of modern personnel management and its function should be introduced to the development field of HHR, and realized the importance of the specialist or technical staff. Adjust the structure of HHR, strengthen its training, improve its professional quality, maintain their proper increasing, popularize the knowledge of HHR, and build modern idea of HHR. Reform the old personnel system, build modern human resource management system after forecasting the HHR used developed method.Then we carried on the study on forecasting model. First, forecast HHR of Hebei Province by three single methods. Second respectively, combine the three single results by the fundamental-the weight average combination. Its outcomes that ?=0.152676609?1+0.825723317?2+0.0216?3(R2=0.9998, MSe=1.20592×10-4,e(%)=6.96×10-4). Third, the totalnumber of HHR in Hebei Province was forecasted. The total number of health technical staffs in Hebei province in 2005,2010 and 2015 are expected to be 23.9480, 27.0658, 30.6121. Then used the age-moving method, evaluating the actual number of the health human resource in Hebei Province. At result, we knew the demand and supply of HHR in Hebei Province would be liberal in balance. At the same time, the age distribution was forecasted by this method. It is feasible to use the weight average combination model to forecast HHR.