The Study On Regional Highway Network Traffic Volume Prediction And Its Application

Highway network planning is the an important part of decision-making in the highway construction and scientific management system;it is an important part of the land-use planning and integrated transport network planning, which is belong to the preparatory work in road construction. Highway network planning is belong to long-term development layout planning,which is the main basis for draw up long-term highway construction planning, work out five-year construction program, select for construction projects; It is an important means of keep highway construction layout rationally and development orderly, prevent the decision-making of construction layout free and blind. The level and quality of traffic volume prediction will directly affect the highway network planning science and rationality.Based on the traffic volume prediction ideas, methods and techniques to summarize at present, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the various forecasting methods; by studying the flexibility between the traffic volume and the economic relationship, paper propose regional highway network traffic volume prediction method. Now traffic volume observation stations are set on the the national and provincial road, but at this stage OD surveys require considerable time and cost, this paper use the highway traffic flows pushed to predict future traffic volume. Starting from OD matrix estimation theory, paper provides OD matrix estimation modeling process and gives a detailed calculation methods and steps. For the existence of the current traffic planning has been focused on passenger and ignore cargo, this paper present the proportion of the total transportation control method in passenger and freight traffic volume forecast application; through the formation mechanism and influencing factors of transfer traffic, this paper summarize and analyze the transfer traffic volume prediction model calculation. Finally, through the example of Zhaoqing highway network planning, this paper apply transportation planning software TransCAD, combine these study results above mentioned, presents the calculation steps for the traffic volume forecast of Zhaoqing trunk line highway. The study results prove use of the improved method to predict the traffic volume can be effectively improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency, it can provide a reference for future planning of similar projects.