Prediction Of Highway Traffic Volume Based On Genetic Algorithms And BP Neural Network

Highway traffic is the most rapid development transportation mode in the modern transptation.As the main componet in the comprehensive transportation system,it has the foundational status.It is the dominant force to constantly improve the transportation. Recently, The enterprise of highway in our country is growing, how can we predict the traffic volume fast and accurate is the problem that we must face and solve.Prediction model directly affects the choice of data and the accuracy of prediction. According to the study of traffic volume forecasting methods and models, there are crarrying out the researching of work as following:Firstly, this article analyzes the importance of highway traffic volume forecast in highway development, summarizes the development trend of highway traffic volume forecasting, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various methods. Discusses the factors which impact of passenger and freight volume, correlation coefficient method is used to finally determine the parameters related to the volume of passenger traffic and the freight traffic of Highways, forecast the volume of passenger traffic and the freight traffic of Highways respectively.Secondly,though the related study of the BP neural network and genetic algorithm, put forward the defects of BP neural network,and the combination of genetic algorithm and BP neural network algorithm,called GA-BP model. Using genetic algorithm to optimize the BP neural network weights and thresholds, through the MATLAB to build model to simulation and prediction, and compared with the actual value, proved the feasibility of predicting method.Thirdly, according to the forecast quantity, converted into a standard vehicle number, and use the appropriate allocation method of traffic volume to distribute the traffic volume to the corresponding line, compared with existing data, proved the feasibility of this model on the prediction of traffic volume.Finally, made a summary and explanation for the limitations of using the GA-BP network model to predict traffic volume, and also puts forward the corresponding problems at the same time, provide for further consideration.