Study Of Risk Assessment Based On The Multilevel Grey System Model Of Ship Oil Spilling

With the rapid development of the international economy and the coming of world integration, the trades all over the world have been increased, the requirement for energy volumes, especially for petroleum, has been enlarged, so the marine trade all over the world has also been rapidly developed. However with the rapid development of the marine trade all over the world and petroleum volumes increased rapidly, and the number of vessels added, the transportation environment is becoming more and more complex,the frequent oil spill accident has affected not only ocean ecology system, but also the economy rapid development and the protection of economy environment.Recently, owing to heavy transportation density,large cargo throughout in port in Bohai sea area and much more vessels, with the increasing of large-sale and specialized vessels, the potential risk of pollution from vessels has been growing, Once the oil spill accident happened to a vessel in a large scale, it would inevitably bring serious damage to the ecological environment, the economic development and people's health, directly affecting the economic development of Bohai sea area.Under this background,setting the vessel navigating around Bohai sea area as reseaching object, first the basic situation of the Bohai Sea has been introduced: including hydrological information, meteorological information, development of ports and port cargo throughput and so on. Then three major factors affecting the oil spill has been analyzed:the ship's own factors, external environmental factors and human factors. Finally, "Daqing 63" vessel and "Galaxy Prince"vessel have been set for example to set up multi-level gray evaluation model. The results has showed:This model is simple in calculation, clear in level and credible in the results.This model has provided comprehensive oil spill information. Multi-index, multi-level evaluation system method to prevent oil spills and enhance oil spill monitoring has been of important guiding significance and application value.