Research On Effectiveness Evaluation Methods Of Weapon Systems

Effectiveness of weapon systems means the ability of the weapon to accomplish the appointed tasks on the warfare conditions, which is the ultimate aim we pursue in the development and use of the systems. It's the most important index to evaluate the weapon systems.With the increase of the sort of weapons and diversity of warfare conditions, the experience and intuition of military experts to effectiveness of weapon systems can't fit for modern warfare, so rapid and effective technologies are necessary for the development of evaluations. The service probability, hit probability, maneuver and protection capability evaluation technologies of a weapon system are studied in this dissertation. The main work is as follows:Firstly, the basic concepts of effectiveness, the significance of evaluations and the primary technologies are summarized. The evaluation index system of effectiveness is given in view of the characteristics of weapon systems.Secondly, two evaluation technologies for the service probability, namely the method based on stochastic service system theory and Monte-Carlo, are studied. In the example of a miniature aerial defence system, the results from two different ways during the resolution of service probability of attack are analyzed, and the advantages and disadvantages are given respectively. Based on the above, an improved technology of service probability is given. This technology exploits the characteristics that the parameters in queue theory are rough to stochastic events in statistical experiment simulation, inherently possessing the advantages of the above two technologies.Thirdly, Covariance Analysis Description Function Technique (CADET) has been researched. The analysis and application of CADET in hit probability evaluation is emphasized in the study. Comparing the statistical experiments, the results of CADET are close to that of statistical experiments on the condition that the system is not seriously nonlinear, while the time-consuming is only few percent of that.Fourthly, a weapon maneuver and protection capability evaluation method has been researched. Some weapon system's maneuver capability analytic hierarchy structural model was established, and target level various elements about the target stratum weight was determined. The performance index of non-dimensional and normalized was solved by using the fuzzy mathematics the degree of membership and the membership function concept and the method. And then, some weapon system's maneuver capability was assessed thoroughly. Some weapon system's protection capability appraisal question was studied by using the AHP method.Finally, a weapon system's overall effectiveness evaluating and modeling methods was researched, including index of maneuver capability, index of protection capability, strike effectiveness, strike effectiveness index and integral effectiveness index.