Research On Kill Probability In Effectiveness Assessment Of Weapon System

·In the future air-defense battlefield, with the increasingly complex air threat, thedevelopment of new weapons with strong kill ability, high firing accuracy and fastresponse is an important guarantee to win the battle. Research on the effectivenessassessment of weapon system, which make us follow the rapid development of the highand new technology to develop new kinds of weapons fast, efficiently with lowdissipative. As important parts of effectiveness in weapon system, the research on the killprobability of the weapon system plays an important role of effectiveness assessment.The thesis focuses on the kill probability of effectiveness assessment. Research from themechanism to do the kill probability simulation based on the ballistic trajectorysimulation. Main content includes the following aspects:(1) Research on the basic theories of effectiveness assessment and kill probability.Ascertain the importance of kill probability in effectiveness assessment. Make sure whatthe most important part of the thesis is.(2) Analyze the mathematical model of the ballistic trajectory and establish thesimulation model. Use the simulation model to solve the firing problem of target forecastpoint and the way to find the location of the target point. All of the simulation can reachenough accuracy. In order to find the target point, the average rate is used to improve thetraditional fast iterative method. The improvement makes the simulation result reach acertain accuracy，while effectively reducing the complexity of the fast iterative method.(3) Elaborate the main contents of the uniform design method. On the basis of theanalysis of the firing error in firing accuracy assessment and its effective factors, theuniform design method which commonly use in missile accuracy assessment is use to dothe firing accuracy assessment. At last, the result obtained by the uniform design methodis compared with the ones obtained by the Monte Carlo method. Particularly, the researchof the uniform design shows the selection problem of the level number.(4) Analyze detailed and establish the vulnerability model of the cruise missile. Usethe computer to generate pseudo-random number to be used as the fire error to simulatethe fixed firing of the cruise missile. Deal with the simulation results which show thelocation of the points of impact to calculate the kill probability.(5) On the basis of the previous theoretical analysis, CVI is used to set up thesoftware design of kill probability of weapon system. Realize the correspondingfunctions which include ballistic trajectory simulation, fire accuracy assessment and killprobability calculation etc though the C program.