Research On Effectiveness Evaluation Methods Of Missile Weapon Systems

Effectiveness of missile weapon systems is the ability of missiles which accomplish the settled tasks in the warfare conditions; the ultimate aim which we pursue in the development and employment of the systems; the most important index which we evaluate the weapon systems.As the variety of weapons and diversity of warfare conditions increase, the experience and intuition of military experts to effectiveness of weapon systems only haven't fitted for modern warfare, so the objective,rapid and effective technologies are necessary for the development of evaluations. The penetration probability and hit probability evaluation technologies of missile weapon systems are studied in this dissertation, and the main work is as follows:(1)The basic concepts of effectiveness, the significance of evaluations and the primary technologies are summarized. Also, the evaluation index system of effectiveness is given in view of the characters of missile weapon systems.(2)Two of statistical technologies used for the evaluation of missile penetration, the method based on stochastic service system theory and Monte Carlo, are introduced in detail. Regarding an aerial defence system in miniature as objects of study, the results from two different ways during the resolution of penetration probability of attack missile are compared, and the advantages and disadvantages are given respectively. From these above, a penetration probability improved technology of missiles is provided. This technology utilizes the character that the parameters in queue theory are rough to stochastic events in statistical experiment simulation, combining the advantages of both. The comparison of the results of simulation indicates that the new technology precedes the old one integrating the accuracy and speediness during the resolution of penetration probability of missiles.(3)The main contents of Covariance Analysis Description Function Technique are interpreted. Regarding a nonlinear model of tactics missiles as objects of study, the application of CADET in hit probability evaluation is given. Comparing the results of statistical experiments, the results of CADET are close...