Analyse On The Safety Of SLOCS For Crude Oil Import Of China

Crude oil, known as the blood of modern industry which lubricates its operations, is a kind of industrial materials and strategic materials of great significance to a country. China ranks the fifth for crude oil production, but owing to big discrepancy in volume between production and consumption, China kicked off its crude oil import in 1990s and has witnessed annual growths since then. According to figures acquired from the customs, China imported 0.179 billion tons crude oil in 2008, of which 0.1645 billion tons were carried by ships, accounting for 92% of the total. It follows that it is of critical importance to safeguard the security of the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) for crude oil import of China in order to protect our country's crude oil strategic safety.The thesis firstly has qualitative analysis on SLOCs for crude oil import of China and further its significance and safety status, introduces the connotations and classifications of SLOCs, then classifies SLOCs for crude oil import of China and summarizes factors affecting the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China. Based on the qualitative analysis, statistics and economics methods are adopted to analyze SLOCs for crude oil import of China listed as grey prediction method, cubic exponential smoothing method and BP neural network prediction method for predictions on crude oil import volume by sea from 2009 to 2013, Mid-Africa-China shipping volume and Middle East-China shipping volume respectively. And BP neural network has been used to make risk assessment on security factors affecting SLOCs for crude oil import of China, from which to draw a conclusion that the network is practical and effective in this connection. Finally, by analyzing factors like carriage quota, navigating time for single voyage, etc., the thesis establishes quantitative model for identification of transport capacity scale of oil tanker fleet and ascertains safety oil tanker transport capacity scale of China under different periods.At the end of this thesis, with reference to the aforesaid qualitative and quantitative analysis, the author brings forth a serial of advices to secure the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China including reasonably adjusting port crude oil throughput capacity in China, expediting the construction of state crude oil strategic reserves, reasonably allocating crude oil terminals in China's coastal regions, hastening the construction of native oil tanker fleet, strengthening national cooperation and so on. Footed within the abilities and provinces of Competent Authorities of Transport and Communications, taking off from solving practical problems and commencing on the problems that can be settled, the thesis aims to commit deep researches on securing measures for the safety of SLOCs for crude oil import of China.