Load Forecasting Of Power System

Load forecasting is an important research content of power system planning and running, and is premise for reliable supplying and economic running, and also is the basis of power system planning and construction. Exact degree of load forecasting shall affect rationality of investment, network layout and running.Because the load forecasting in distribution network is affected by many uncertain factors, up to now ,no methods can obtain the satisfying forecasting results at all instance, so at the time of practical forecasting, choosing many forecasting methods according to the actual instance, and checking forecasting results of different method, finally forecasting results are confirmed.Load gross forecasting belongs to stratagem forecasting. It makes the load of the whole planning region as forecasting object. Its results decide the urban demand for electric power and the supplying capacity of urban distribution network in the future. The results of load gross forecasting have important guidance significance for ascertaining the location of power supply and generating planning. It is the important basis of distribution network planning.The paper introduce the forecasting theory and its application. At first, the importance of load forecasting and its development actuality are given briefly ;then the load forecasting theory is discussed mathematically, combined with the reality of power system, methods of load forecasting are presented in detail. All these methods are analyzed and compared through simulation experiments and a new integrated method is presented based on these methods.