The Forecasting Analysis Of Volume Of Railway Freight About Ala Shan Kou

Cargo rail transport is the main basis for determining the size of the rail infrastructure. Reasonable and accurate predictions cargo will directly affect investment and efficiency of railway projects,and has the most significant influence on the future development strategy of railway transportation,reasonable use of resources,and give full play to the future development strategy of the most significant impact on the benefits of rail transport facilities. According to the relevant cargo volume forecasting literature at home and abroad, this paper expounds the principle, method and steps of railway cargo volume forecasting;It studies and discusses the application of the cargo volume forecasting with Grey forecasting model, Exponential smoothing model, Linear regression model, then combine multiple model to Variable weight model to predict which can overcome the limitations of a single forecasting model of the cargo volume with railway transport and also can improve the accuracy of the prediction. In combination with the practical situation of the study area of railway port cargo volume, analysis superiority, disadvantage, chances and threats of this paper,then makes The SWOT analysis and establishes the SWOT matrix to explore the future development of the railway port strategy for implementing forecasting railway cargo volume, which can provide decision basis of railway port transportation development.In this paper, there are six parts. The first part expounds the paper’ s the background, significance, purpose and content that summarizes the research progress of cargo volume forecasting At home and abroad. The second part introduces Ala Shan Kou railway port on which analyzes the problems of recent railway port. The third part analyzes the related factors of affecting import and export freight fluctuation. The fourth part has according to the calculation results to make SWOT analysis and explores the future development of the railway port strategy.The fifth part reviews the freight volume forecasting model and makes the introduction and analysis of the characteristics and calculation method with Grey forecasting model, Exponential smoothing model, Linear regression model, then makes a combine multiple model to predict the freight volume and calculates results. The sixth chapter is this article conclusion and suggestion that puts forward the need to further solve the problem in the future.