The use of the moving average forecasting, linear trend forecasting, and exponential smoothing forecasting techniques in education

Accurate enrollment forecasts provide the basis for reliable educational planning and decision-making. Enrollment forecasts determine a wide variety of educational decisions such as labor requirements, building usage requirements, and amount and type of equipment necessary. In other words, accurate forecasting helps determine accurate resource allocation.; The Cohort Survival Method is also the primary tool used by most district, county, and state administrative agencies for enrollment projections. The Cohort Survival Method is a relatively sophisticated statistical technique requiring the experience and training of expert statisticians.; Presented in the study are three forecasting techniques which: (1) provide alternatives to the Cohort Survival Method for forecasting school enrollments; (2) offer forecasts with comparable accuracy to those provided by the Cohort Survival Method; (3) rely entirely on objective forecasting techniques, which allow more widespread use of them; and (4) provide comparatively simple mathematic formulas which can be administered easily by educational administrators at all levels.; The Moving Average, Linear Trend, and Exponential Smoothing forecasting methods were used to calculate forecasts for k--12 enrollment for Los Angeles County using historical enrollment data obtained from the California Department of Education and California Department of Finance.; With the use of the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) method of accuracy comparison, it was found that the most accurate forecasts were obtained with the use of the Exponential Smoothing formula with a historical accuracy rate of approximately 1% over the past twenty-eight years of enrollment. Because of the high degree of accuracy over a long period of time, it is assumed that a forecast for future enrollment will also be accurate to the same degree.