The Research Of Macroscopical Highway Safety Evaluation Method

The road safety evaluation is one of the important means to prevent effectively and reduce the traffic accident. It is in terms of highway users to find the potential factor of the traffic accident in appraising the project of the highway. Doing it accident can be prevented before it happens, personnel and property loss can be reduced to the greatest extent.This article produced three methods to carry on the appraisal of traffic safety. They respectively are the gray gathering method, based on gray relation multistage gray appraisal law and self-organizing competitive network. This method different from the classical method is not only considering the absolute indexes or several relative indices carried on the appraisal, but is choosing a series of appraisal indexes to compose an appraisal system before carried on the appraisal. In the establishment of appraisal index system, the human,the vehicle,the road,the environment and many other factors must be considered. Thus make comprehensive and the accurate appraisal to the object.The gather method analyses the indexes in 2002 and 2003, and compare the results to find the distribution and changing rule of traffic safety condition. Based on gray relation multistage gray appraisal law discards the Philippine rule and introduces the gray relation to confirm the index weights, meanwhile solves the bug of judgment matrix established by experts, Moreover the result by this method has the very good feasibility. The self-organizing competitive network is a method of no-teaching training. it does not need to consider the output expected and operates simply. It can be realized in the matlab nerve network toolbox. The training result has the very strong usability.Each method above mentioned has a chapter to complete respectively. Each charter has introduced the principle, the method and the model constructed, then analyses national partial areas data in 2002 and 2003, Finally produces the appraisal result and carries on the discussion to the result. From the results given by the three method, we can see that in the majority of area three methods results have not changed; a small partial area appraisal result has the change of a rank ; the results of few places have had the big change. It shows that three methods have the very good uniformity. In practical application, choosing the appraisalresult of which one method is based on the special information and designer'sexperience.