Application Of Gray Systematic Theory In The Embankment Bank Slope Stability Analyzing

The urban embankment project plays a quite important role in the social development, it is one of the major disasters commonly met in the construction of the embankment that embankment bank slope lost its stability. A large amount of subjective and objective uncertainty exist in Traditional analyzing methods. Fully considering uncertainty caused by various kinds of factors is the development trend in slope stability study.First, this thesis briefly introduce the principle and suitability of several simplifying limit equilibrium analysis commonly used in soil slope steadily calculating at present, and point out the weakness of some analytical methods for uncertain. Regarding the embankment bank slope system as a gray system, the basic conception, theory and computing technology of gray systematic theory was introduced in detail.Application of gray systematic theory in the stability studying of embankment bank slope is just started. For the first time, using the gray correlation analytical method , the factors influencing the bank slope stability were analyzed, and the function degree of the influencing factors were arranged in an order of well and badly, which can define the influence degree of every factors and guide engineering design. Take the stability of flood embankment bank slope in Nanning for example, through gray correlation analyzing, the main reason of losing stability was found out, and the corresponding administration scheme had been put forward.Basing on the principle and method of analogical and gray correlation analytic, this thesis put forward a method of comprehensive analogy evaluation of embankment bank slope. As far as Nanning flood embankment slope was concerned, stability of 5 bank slope were evaluated and predicted., the result quietly accord with the actually's.Through the choice of gray predictable models. A GM (1,1) model was set up for the subsiding deformation observation materials of flood embankment bank slope, and the prediction of time-subsiding was made. According to the subsiding deformation observation materials of 4 points in Wuzhou city during 2001.1 and 2001.9, the deformations of 2001.10 and 2001.11 were predicted, the error is very little, less than 0.1 %, the precision is relatively high.The result of study shows: application of gray systematic theory in the urban embankment project is appropriate practical and effective, and have a good prospect. Grey correlation factor analysis has actual project meaning in guiding measures made to instruction; Using the comprehensive analogy evaluation method to evaluate the embankment bank slope stability, a kind of new method was offered in fast diagnosis of flood embankment stability; Using gray model to predict deformation, the security state of embankment can be controlled.