Research On Scenario Analysis For Port Development Strategy

In the following years, there exist great uncertainties for transportation system ofchina. These uncertainties will influence transportation development to some degreein the future. As one of the core transportation hinges, port has a close relationshipwith national economy. Scientific and reasonable development strategy of port notonly is essential for the future development of port itself, but also will influence thedevelopment of national economy. It is reckoned in this thesis that port developmenthas complicated relationship with social factors, economic factors and politic factorsin the changeful times, especially under the condition of global economy and intenseregional competition, what's more disruptive incidents are having greater and greatereffect on port throughput. If traditional and routine prediction ways are still used toanalyze the future development of port, the port development state of China will bedifficult to be known due to the limitation of the researchers'recognition ability. Sotraditional prediction ways, which have some limitation, cannot give the portthroughput correctly any more. The application of scenario analysis definitely canhelp researcher to get rid of the restriction of traditional analysis ways.There is less quantitative analysis in the progress of scenario analysis, but thedevelopment trend of the study object can be better displayed and the strategicsuggestions put forward by it are more feasible. Because various experts of differentfields, who judge and analyze the key influential factors, are involved in the creativeprocess of this analysis method, then the future uncertainty of the study object will befound easily. What's more this method do not emphasize on the choice of calculationmodel, the skill of prediction and the set of parameter. Quantitative analysis isdefinitely very important, but the key purpose is to analyze the future developmenttrend and provide consistency and reliability of the conjunction between differentfactors, rather than give a lot of data.In this thesis, scenario analysis combining qualitative analysis and quantitativeanalysis is used to analyze the future development of port. Comparing scenarioanalysis and traditional prediction ways, the thesis expatiates on the conception andcharacteristic of scenario analysis and scenario planning, and its advantage overtraditional methods. Particularly to the port throughput, the ways to scenario analysisand analytic process and relevant mathematical model are put forward in the thesis. Inorder to get cross-impact probability between different factors, cross impact methodand markov method are used together, which figure out the problem of simulationfunction difficult to be settled.In this thesis, development strategy of Ningbo port is studied by use of scenarioanalysis. On the basis of expert inquiry method and SWOT analysis of Ningbo port,six key influential factors are put forward and sixty-four development scenario ofNingbo port comes out. For specific scenario, using quantitative analysis in traditionalforecasting method, the port throughput of Ningbo port in 2015 is got. And alsonational policy among the six key factors which influent the future development ofNingbo port turns out to have the greatest effect on the development of Ningbo portby using the method of sensitivity analysis. The study result proves that research onscenario analysis for port throughput combing quantitative analysis can avoid badeffects on port development led by incorrect data and disruptive incident. Comparedwith the port throughput got by using traditional forecasting method, the result ofscenario analysis not only is correct for the throughput level, but also can showvarious development path of different port throughput.