Research On Prediction Of Shanghai’ Port Throughput Based On ICSO-SVM

In the context of economic globalization and the One Belt One Road initiative,coastal ports,as significant hubs for domestic and foreign trade,are playing an increasingly pivotal role in the new era.To meet the rapidly changing demand of the port logistics modernization,it is essential to strengthen the planning and construction of port development,according to port logistics requirements.Port throughput is a prominent indicator reflecting the development scale and service capacity of port logistics.Therefore,accurate prediction of port throughput will help port grasp the direction of business development and promote the rational layout of port logistics networks.And consequently provide some scientific and effective decision-making suggestions for the modernization of port logistics.Shanghai is an important strategic hub for China’s shipping trade.This paper will predict the development trend of Shanghai port throughput from 2021 to 2025,based on the port throughput forecast theory.This research will first conduct an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of Shanghai port throughput,and use the gray correlation analysis method to analyze 14 pre-selected indicators to obtain the key factors affecting Shanghai port throughput.Then we apply principal component analysis method to extract the main information of those influencing factors as the input data of the prediction model;secondly,this paper uses support vector machine(SVM)as the basis of the prediction model,and introduces the chicken optimization algorithm(CSO)to improve the performance of the SVM.To further improve the prediction accuracy and generalization ability of the model,this study combines the chaos theory and adaptive learning strategy to propose an improved chicken flock optimization algorithm(ICSO),and builds a port throughput prediction model based on ICSO-SVM;then this research sets three scenarios: benchmark development,high-speed development,and low-speed development,and applies scenario prediction method to predict the port throughput of Shanghai from 2021 to 2025.Eventually,on the basis of above forecast results,this paper offers corresponding countermeasures and proposals for the development of port logistics in Shanghai.The research results of this paper show that the three influencing factors that have the highest correlation with Shanghai port throughput are GDP,total import and export volume,and coastal berths.Through error checking and comparison with other forecasting models,the ICSO-SVM forecasting model proposed in this paper has The highest prediction accuracy can better fit the development trend of Shanghai port throughput;simultaneously,the test results also show that after influencing factor analysis and ICSO optimization,the generalization ability and prediction performance of the SVM model can be effectively improved;the scenario prediction results show that Shanghai’s port throughput in 2025 will reach 77228 million tons under the benchmark development scenario,while under the high-speed and low-speed development scenarios,it will reach 79469 and 75444 million tons,respectively.Based on the forecast results,this article puts forward a series of countermeasures that Shanghai should strengthen the cooperation of the port hinterland,promote the upgrading of consumption and investment capacity,strengthen the introduction of professional talents,and improve the construction of port facilities,which provides reference opinions for the development of Shanghai port logistics.