Research On Forecasting Methods Of Railway Passenger Flow

Railway network is the backbone of the whole transportation network. Railway passenger transportation plays an important role in the study on national transportation development strategy. Mastering the railway passenger transportation demands is the premise for studying passenger transportation. And this also can help to make passenger plan, layout of the network construction, assignment of the transportation facility and the transportation strategy.Based on the study of the mechanism of passenger flow production, the paper analyses the influence factors on the passenger flow and reconstructs the factors of the hierarchical model.Furthermore, much work has been done to analyse the problem of sensitive degree of the factors of passenger flow system by mathematical method. This paper gives the keys of the relative variables selection in the passenger flow prediction. Moreover the article systematically sum up the methods of the passenger flow prediction and give the framework of the passenger flow prediction. Based on the analysis for the characteristic of each method, the article gives the applicability of each method and constructs a set of modles for selecting methods. Finally, the article constructs a new method for the metaphase and long-term prediction by the system simulation and the metheod passing the test with relative data.