Research On Railway Passenger Flow Forecast Of China Existing Railway Speed-Up

Along with the development of Chinese economy, Transport has become the basis of the national economy industries and plays a crucial role. Throughout the integrated transport network .But now, the railway transport is facing the pressure of quantity and quality. To solve the railway transportation "bottleneck" problem, and promoting the rapid development of China's economy, China's railway management departments based on the existing foundation to expand capacity on existing routes speed technological renovation. Traffic has always been a measure of the effectiveness of speed an important indicator, and also speed railway project feasibility study on one of the core content. Based on the analysis of the current situation at home and abroad on the basis of research, Around the volume of traffic carried out in-depth forecasting methods and systems theory and research methods, and conduct practical applications.The article in the research work from there on the basis of three speed Most of the passenger traffic volume after the study was mainly done the following work:â‘ Introduction is the first part. First analysis of the domestic and international passenger traffic forecast on the status quo, and find out the existing problems and shortcomings. At last, determining the direction of the article.â‘¡The second part includes the second and third chapter. This paper on China's existing railway speed acceleration and the state of the necessity of an introductory. After the speed of transport demand and the cause of the factors affecting the demand for transport, but also expounded speed passenger flow after the formation of the basic principles and forecast.â‘¢The third part is the fourth chapter and the core of this paper. The passenger traffic induced by comprised of three parts: the trend, the transfer of passenger traffic, lured by passenger. Because they do not have the same mechanism, so different models to predict. First established a model to forecast traffic trends. Application of multi-objective decision-making theory and econometric methods to study before and after the passenger railway speed increase market share, with the final establishment of traffic induced by the transfer of passenger model. â‘£The fourth part is the fifth chapter. Forecast model will be applied to the case, through the predicted results compared with the actual results of the reasonableness of the model. Speed-up projects for the future feasibility study to provide a scientific, rational, workable traffic forecasting methods.