Research On Passenger Flow Forecast And Passenger Transport Organization In Dalian Railway Station

Chunyun in China means the transportation during the Spring Festival,because of its own particularity,the Spring Festival has evolved into a largescale transportation phenomenon before and after the formation of the lunar new year;it is also the guidance of "be home for the Spring Festival" in the traditional concept,During the Spring Festival of large population caused by migration,resulting in causing a major problem to be solved Chinese transportation industry.During the long journey,people choose to go home for the first time in the new is the way of railway travel because of the right price.Making the efficient and rational arrangement of railway transportation during the Spring Festival is a problem to be solved on the agenda.This paper describes the background of the research and its important significance.After fully understanding the research results of large passenger transport such as Spring Festival and other specific periods at home and abroad,then put forward the whole train of thought in this paper.Based on the volume of Dalian Railway Station during the Spring Festival,according to the information of Dalian Railway Station and station and the characteristics of passenger flow in Spring Festival,this paper studied the changing rules put forward reasonable suggestions for improvement.Over the past 40 days,the passenger flow information of the Spring Festival is based on the total volume of passenger traffic in Dalian Railway Station during the past Spring Festival,a relatively stable prediction method is applied to predict the passenger flow of Dalian Railway Station in spring in the coming year,with the predicted specific value,we should make some reasonable suggestions for improving the transport plan of Dalian Railway Station during the Spring Festival.As the whole prediction process uses the quantitative analysis method,this paper uses the different software to calculate the data information of the spring transport passenger flow in DRailway Station in three kinds of prediction,which are exponential smoothing,regression analysis and GM(1,1),which is the grey prediction method,and then the calculated value and accuracy are obtained.After the comparative analysis,we finally selected the prediction method of GM(1,1).According to the prediction results,this paper makes some reasonable improvement suggestions for some problems existing in Dalian Railway Station.