The Passengers Flow Forecast Method Research For The Transfer Station Of Railway Transit

With the rapid development of economy of our country, different degree of traffic congestion has appeared in the city. The research and practice have proved that the development of urban public transportation is the only way to solve the problem. Urban rail transit is an important part of public transportation system. Recent years, the urban rail transit of our country develops rapidly. Because of the large investment and the long period, the passengers flow forecast research is significative for the rationality and scientific of the urban rail transit construction. Now, the passengers flow forecast is short of transfer station. So this paper puts forward a method for the rail transfer station which based on the passengers flow analysis.(1) This paper introduces the most commonly used method like the four stages and land utilization. Then it summarizes the steps to the forecast of the transfer station. And it is obtained the shortcomings of the traditional forecast method on the basis of the analysis of these two methods.(2) According to the shortcoming of our traditional forecast method, this paper puts forward a new method about the passengers flow forecast for the transfer station. The method is based on analysis of the passengers flow. The guiding ideology of the method is the passenger tranfer. The preliminary data of the passengers flow forecast is obtained by the investigation, the statistics and the survey of passengers'intention. Finally, theoretical model calculations and analysis of passenger travel survey results will determine the combination of the various tributaries of the transfer ratio, which end up rail line opened for passenger transfer station early projections.(3) This paper uses the Xuanwumen station of Beijing metro line 4 as an example, finally we obtaine the forecast number of passengers access to station, the number of transfer passengers and the fluctuations in the value of the proposed passenger of station.At the end of the paper, we compare the forecast number with the actual number. With domestic passenger traffic prediction in major cities compared, we prove this method is reasonable and effective.