| Attack region of the missile not only reflects tactical performances of the missile, but also reflects the effect on attack region produced by the maneuverability of the aircraft to be attacked and the function of the missile launched by the aircraft. The design of the Attack region is based on calculation of the trajectory, and its accuracy is mainly determined by restraining and optimization methods. The attack region to the air-to-air missile has been worked out. However, when IR decoy is thrown by the target, the hitting probability has not been researched.In this paper, for a campaign demand at present, it is assumed that the target releases IR decoy and the infrared lead is able to capture the target, and the hitting probability is calculated and simulated. The main contents include:Firstly, random variables, describing the motion characters of IR decoy, are selected, in order that they have different effects on the missile in the simulation.Next, the simulation models of probability attack region are constructed, including the models about IR decoy, the missile and the target. Among them, the former consists of the status model, the motion model, the visual angle error model, the delay arithmetic model and the relation between the missile and IR decoy.Then, the theory attack region is calculated., on the basis of the missile and target motion models.Finally, miss distances are counted utilizing Monte Carlo method, and the hitting probability is computed. Through using mathematical methods, the scattered points of probability are drawn. We can get a surface with the attack region.The work of this thesis has practical significance and applied perspective in the simulation of missile weapon system. Utilizing the experimental data of missile, we can construct high fidelity model in the simulation of missile weapon system based on the work of this thesis. So the experimental times and cost can be reduced, and the design and manufacturing period can be compressed significantly.
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