Criteria And Risk Analysis For Dam Hydrological Safety

Much attention has been paid to dam hydrological safety since it relates to the life and the wealth of the public. The risk analysis of dam hydrological safety is helpful to improve reservoir management and efficiency for resource utility. This paper was part of the key research projects sponsored by the Ministry of Water Resources, "The assessment of reservoir design flood theories and flood control methods at home and broad". The main works and results were summarized as follows:(1) Based on the review of the criteria for dam hydrological safety at home and abroad, the criteria in china and in some other countries were compared. Some factors that affected the selection of design criteria were summarized, and the new trends for dam hydrological safety were also discussed.(2) The advancement of risk analysis in dam hydrological safety were summarized, a detailed state-of-art review of risk definition, risk measures and risk analysis methods was given. This study shows that the risk analysis can benefit improving the management of safety.(3) The study of acceptable risk was reviewed and acceptable risk was determined corresponding to various risk measures. The methods of using ALARP principle and F-N curve to determine the acceptable risk were discussed and their applications in the area of dam safety assessment were also explored.(4) Several representative risk rate estimation models were introduced and compared. Three different schemes were used to estimate hydrological risk rate. The final schemes selected will base on the real conditions for a given reservoir.(5) The conventional methods for hydrological safety of dam were reviewed and a framework of risk assessment was developed. A new risk measure PML(Possible Maximum Lose With a Certain Confidence Level) was proposed. Risk estimation formulas basis of expected value of the economic damage and the fatalities per year and of PML were deduced and used to estimate the hydrological risk for a given dam.(6) The conventional guidelines for the hydrological safety of dam were reviewed. A new method for selection of criteria for hydrological safety and design flood based on risk analysis was discussed in detail. A risk decision model of criteria for the hydrological safety was developed. The problem that it was not ethical to measure the value of the person by money was solved in some degree.