Analysis On Safety Of Water Transportation In Our Country And Study On The Prediction About Traffic Accidents

The article firstly analyzes the situation of traffic transportation safety and the lying problems. It offers the basic reasons causing the accidents including the natural factors, the ships. Furthermore it illustrates the factors affecting each other, which makes the accidents to be different traits. It emphasizes the ships status and the artificial factors that depend on typical accidents. Based on the basic frame of safety management, it offers the possibility of predicting about the future accidents. This paper not only introduced the usage of safety objective control method in this field, but also presented new impartial ways to formulate the marine traffic accident control objective-prediction result based on the statistical figures of marine traffic accidents in last few years .On the basis of analyzing many factors in marine traffic accidents and the principle of Time Series Analysis, two prediction model were given in this paper, Grey System (GM) and Periodic Mean Generating Function (MGF).Also ,the method of correcting the errors in model MGF was given to make it more usable .At last, the article advises about how to strengthen the management of transportation safety and how to prevent the accidents ,so it will be used by the relevant.