Macroscopical Analysis And Modeling In Traffic Safety

As economy develops fast continually in China, traffic demand speeds remarkably. As a result, more and more traffic accidents appear in China. But traffic accidents in developed countries and some developing countries are decreasing. So it is essential to find out the direction and laws of traffic safety in China. In this paper, Actuality and trend of the traffic safety in the world are macroscopically analyzed. Actuality and direction of the traffic safety in the china are compared with those in the world. The relationship between travel safety degree measured as number of deaths per 10,000 motor vehicles - traffic safety degree measured as number of deaths per 100,000 people and other indexes which marks of the traffic system and system's environment is investigated in detail. So the elementary direction of the traffic safety about the developing countries and the developed countries is discovered. By analyzing the former traffic macroscopical models of the traffic safety and a lot of the traffic safety data about the developing countries and the developed countries, the law of the traffic safety in the developing countries ^ the developed countries are established. Macroscopical prediction models of the traffic safety about the developed countries (America) and the developing countries are got by using the method of regression analysis. The model of the traffic safety degree about china is analyzed and the predictive results are discussed. In the end, the characters of traffic accidents in China are analyzed; elementary countermeasures for Chinese traffic safety are put forward.