Theory And Method On Evaluation Of Regional Road Traffic Safety

With the rapid development of social economy, and great improvement of the level of urbanization and motorization in China, the traffic safety issues are becoming more serious and focused on by people. Since the21st century, the situation of road traffic accidents has been improved but it is still significantly worse than that in developed countries. Moreover the social factors that impact traffic safety are much more outstanding than before, especially the development of social economy is largely discrepant among the provinces of China. As a result the regional characteristics of traffic safety and their causes are more obvious. So it not only has a good theoretical and practical significance, but also is helpful to improve the level of provincial region traffic safety to study the discrepancies of traffic safety features and their causes and value the traffic safety situation among provincial regions.Under the circumstances, this dissertation will carry out intensive study in the following aspects:(1) Study the aspects that evaluate the traffic safety in both internal and abroad region, especially impact factors, evaluation theory, evaluation indexes and comprehensive evaluation method on regional traffic safety, and analyze correlative research methods and theoretical results.(2) Base on the correlation principle and the data of national historical traffic accidents, analyze the correlation between the road traffic accidents and macro impact factors, including GDP, the level of motorization, population, the volume of road transport, road mileage and other management factors. The analysis result shows that the correlation between the road traffic accidents and above macro impact factors in provincial regions is significant in both longitudinal and horizontal dimensions. Meanwhile the correlation is significantly different in these two dimensions. At last, these relationship models between road traffic accidents and above macro impact factors are built by using regression analysis method.(3) Build evaluation indices for the level of traffic safety for provincial regions from six first-grade-indices aspects, including the traffic accident risk, the development of social economy, the structure of road transportation pattern, the efficacy of social management and the defense capacity of social risks. Analyze the correlation between different indices and standardize evaluation indices. Distinguish the grade ranges by using cumulative percentage method. Determine the weight of the evaluation indices by applying mean variance and entropy method.(4) Completely evaluate and sequence road traffic safety level in provincial regions by using the evaluation score of road traffic safety level of provincial regions, discrepancy-driven theory, gray correlative degree and TOPSIS. Determine the best solution for making integrated evaluation by using compatibility degree. Estimate the first-grade-indices for provincial regions by using gray correlative degree. Determine the key indices for provincial regions and perform quality control analysis for evaluation indices base on Shewhart-control-charts theory.(5) To improve the level of provincial road traffic, the countermeasures are designed from the national and provincial perspectives, and the macroeconomic policies are put forward for each province based on above evaluation results.