Study On The Key Theories And Methods Of Road Traffic Safety Forewarning System

As economy develops fast, traffic demand speeds remarkably. As a result, many traffic accidentsappear in China, road traffic safety becomes a problem which many people care for. Traffic accidentsbring the greatness waste of society wealth and the passive affects for the stability and comity of society,how to reduces the frequency of traffic accident and improves the level of road traffic safety havebecome a request of people.Based on thoroughly analyzing the features of road traffic and road traffic accidents, this paperstudies the rules of road traffic accidents, discusses the effects of all factors for road traffic accidents inChina;especially designs the forecast model of road traffic accidents and the estimation model of roadtraffic safety;finally researches the frame of forewarning system.In view of the characteristic that the traffic system is a dynamic and time-varying parameter system,the multi-level recursive forecasting method is proposed, and the multi-level recursive forecastingmodel of road accidents is established in this thesis. In this method, the forecasting of road accidents isdivided into two parts: the forecasting of time-varying parameters and the future forecasting of roadaccidents based on the forecasting of time-varying parameters. By the precise forecasting oftime-varying parameter, the forecasting precision of road accidents can be improved.As a method, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is applied to evaluate road traffic safety.Which has the characteristic of validity evaluation on much input and much output Decision MakingUnit (DMU) , the paper will try to use the method of binary relative effectivenessquantificational to appraise the relatively safety of different areas road trafficBased on the forecast and the evaluation, elementary studies the forewarning system frame of roadtraffic safety, explain the rule, the process and the problem in the process of researching the system。Thesystem will establish the theoretic basic for in time providing science defensive measure and has greatpractice meaning.