Study On The Risk Assessment Of Single - Line Operation Of Urban Rail Transit Under The Influence Of Human Factors And Environmental Factors

With the continuous development of city rail transit, the operation of city rail traffic risk has become increasingly prominent.The environment (weather and Geography), human (passenger behavior, other acts inside and outside the car station etc.) the logical relationship between risk source and event dispatching, flight attendants, station and other non related events continue to strengthen. How to grasp the law. to assess the risk of better during the operation of the city rail transit, this paper will explain from the following aspects.Based on the subway operating company technical regulations, safety regulations and operating rules, subway staff on-site experience.literature and books, the author used bow tie model to make 23 risk chain which under the urban rail traffic single track operation of human, environmental factors. Selection of using fuzzy bow-tie method and Bayesian network method and fuzzy causality diagram method has carried on the analysis to the urban rail transit in typical accidents.The accident mechanism is quantitatively calculated the probability of the 23 abnormal events occur, risk conduction after 92 consequences of event probability and the fuzzy bow-tie method. Bayesian network method and fuzzy causality diagram method the applicability of were compared and described.By sorting top events of the fault tree and final result of event trees in the BT model to verify the correctness of the results.The validation of the main event ordering mainly through historical data to verify the local; the event using expert questionnaire method to verify that all.The results show that the sequence is correctness. which verifies the correctness of expert questionnaire survey on the probability of the accident.Using Bayesian network software GeNie and MATLAB software to accident risk chain in the train door clamping event as an example of possibility were analyzed. and application of Bayesian networks to the posterior probability to find the five risk chain in the contribution rate of the biggest event. From the derived results for urban rail transit operation and put forward effective prevention and emergency measures, thus for the preparation of a scientific plan provide theoretical basis, improve the emergency plan of urban rail transit operation, finally cut off between risk transfer, to prevent the occurrence of secondary risk, realize the smooth operation of the urban rail transit.