Study On Dynamic Early Warning Of Urban Ecosystem Safety In Yunnan Province

This paper takes the city ecology, ecological system theory, ecological environment carrying capacity theory as the theoretical guidance, refer to the relevant research results at home and abroad, combined with the actual situation of Yunnan Province in 2011-2014 year time scale, the 16 cities of Yunnan Province, as the spatial scale constructed by water ecosystem, ecosystem atmosphere, land ecological system, ecological system. The social economic ecological system, the 5 subsystems of comprehensive construction of Yunnan city ecological security early warning system of dynamic evaluation index system. In 2011-2015 annual statistical yearbook of Yunnan Province Based on the city state environmental bulletin Yearbook, on the basis of such data collected early warning evaluation index of original value, after verification according to the need of research in early warning evaluation index normalized entropy method of determining weight, development of the early warning evaluation value calculation, according to the development of city ecological security system of Yunnan province in 2011-2014, 16 Study on the degree of early warning evaluation and the safety development of each ecological subsystem:The 2011-2014 in Yunnan province 16 city state city ecological security early warning system of comprehensive evaluation values are located in the warning interval, city ecosystem services 16 city system is weak, poor coordination. In 2011 the development of Yunnan province city ecological security degree positive development(system optimization), belongs to the class I state without warning lights in the optimization of system structure, the safety of the city ecosystem development.2012 was reverse development(system deterioration), belongs to the class II blue light light warning, the system structure was deteriorating in 2014,2013 years, city ecosystem safety development in critical changes. In 2011-2014 years of Puer City, Kunming City, Baoshan city ecological system in the continuous development of reverse, the rest of the city, the positive development of the continuing poor. The number of city presents each city ecosystem safety development degree evaluation value of city state number positive development and reverse thedevelopment City ecosystem system of 1/2. 4 of Yunnan Province in 2011-2014 16,close to the total development of 1/2 year changes in the pattern of city space early warning state city water ecosystem deterioration in state, close to 1/3 City, city ecosystem deterioration in atmospheric state, in 2013,3/4 city state city ecosystem deterioration in the atmosphere the state of land ecological system in the city. The number of deterioration by several city states close to 1/3 gradually changed to 1/2city state number.1/2 city state city biological ecosystem is deteriorating state, 1/2 city state city social economic ecosystem is deteriorating. The analysis of correlation development in 2011-2014 province south of city ecological system safety, city ecosystem system 16 city development degree of correlation analysis of the city state,the degree of influence of each subsystem is not the same. The correlation between order cumulant shows 2011-2014 cloud The development degree of urban ecosystem security in southern province is mainly influenced by atmospheric ecosystem and biological ecosystem, and the second is land ecosystem, water ecosystem and social economic ecosystem.