Research On Assessment, Early Warning Of Ecosystem Security In Shanxi Province

With the rapid development of science and technology, A series of environmental problems have arisen, such as frequent natural disasters, forest vegetation and biodiversity loss, land desertification, etc. Especially during the past three years, a wide range of haze weather ravaged all over the country,seriously influenced people's daily life. Therefore, to safeguard the natural environment of our survival is urgent, how to maintain the coordinated development of economy, society and ecology and keep pace with the demand of ecological system security is particularly important. Ecological security has become a frontier subject in the sustainable development. The key points and difficulties in the research of ecosystem security are constantly improve the research methods, accurately grasp the status of regional ecological security and the future situation.This paper takes Shanxi Province as the research area to carry out regional ecosystem security assessment, forecasting, early-warning and control research.Based on P-S-R(Pressure-State-Response) model, combined with factor analysis, ultimately the 29 indicators were selected from the economic development, people's livelihood improvement, resource protection and ecological environment protection in four aspects to constitute the Shanxi Province ecological security index system. At the same time, Applying the catastrophe progression method and factor analysis method together to construct the evaluation of regional mutation model in order to comprehensively evaluating ecological system security of Shanxi province from 2004 to2013.The results showed that Shanxi Province ecological security system with time evolution can be divided into three phases: 2004-2007 ecosystem security is on the rise, during 2004 to 2005 changes faster, the ecological system is not comprehensive safety rating from the security level(V) into unsafe level(IV);From 2007-2009 in Shanxi Province, the ecological system security is declining stage. Mutation occurred in 2007 and 2009, the comprehensive ecological security level are in unsafe levels(IV); ecological system 2009-2013 securitygradually increased to a relatively safe state. In 2010, the ecological system security level in Shanxi province changed from unsafe level( IV) to critical safety state(III).2011-2012, the critical safety(III) is changed into a more secure level(II).Using radial basis function neural network(RBF) model to predict the evolution trend of ecosystem security in Shanxi Province during 2016-2020, the results show that: 2016-2020,the ecological system comprehensive safety early warning of Shanxi Province is blue warning, the ecological system security level for grade II, 2016-2017 comprehensive early-warning value experienced a brief decline and then 2017-2020 slowly rising. the comprehensive early-warning value maximum value is 0.6827. Average is not high, integrated ecosystem security level has not yet reached grade I, that is, no alarm state.On the basis of results of the evaluation and prediction, the control measures for the maintenance of regional ecological security are put forward.The research results provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of resources, environment, society and economy in Shanxi Province, and to provide a scientific basis for ecological construction and economic construction.