On The Early-Warning And Regulation Of Water Security System Of Sanjiang Plain

With the rapid development of industrial economy,the process of urbanization continues to accelerate, growing water shortage, water pollution worsening water crisis in water security has become an urgent problem. How to effectively prevent water security issues, establishing an accurate, effective water safety warning system is the key to the healthy functioning of water safety. Sanjiang Plain in Heilongjiang Province, the heart of food production, but also China’s important commodity grain production base, in recent years, the Sanjiang Plain wetland area declining, deteriorating water quality, total water resources decline, restricting local economic development, balance of the ecosystem.Therefore,early warning systems security Sanjiang Plain water is the need to address the coordination between regional water resources, social,economic, ecological subsystems of sustainable development issues.On the basis of comprehensive evaluation system on water security, water security index will evaluate the results of the comprehensive index as the alarm indicator, based on the status of regional water security system using the time difference correlation analysis method to select 34 water safety system warning indicators to use secondary screening method to test the validity of indicators, drawn 23 effective early warning indicators, combined with complex adaptive mechanism of water safety system to build regional water security early warning index system,entropy method to determine the index weight, using integrated simulation determination of critical value, the final design of the water safety warning system. The system can give early warning indicators and trend of regional water security system, the system of reverse succession,degeneration,degradation and other phenomena make the identification,analysis and diagnosis,so as to achieve the purpose of early warning. Research results can provide a theoretical basis for further study and research model regional water security system management and regulation.Specific results are as follows(1) qualitative description of complex adaptive systems water security mechanisms and features, by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponent is given the necessary conditions for water security system and describes the chaotic property causes chaos, and complex adaptive characteristics of water proof safety system development. situation.(2) to assess regional water security system police intelligence to predict the future trend of water security status.(3) with dynamic control principle water security system as a starting point, the relationshipbetween the use of system coordination mechanism between the characteristics of the current status of the whole region the selection of regulatory programs.