The Incident Of The Colliery Is Predicted With Risk Appraisal

The security question that the colliery produced has always been an outstanding problem. The thesis, to several large-scale foundations of all kinds of incident statistical analysis of colliery inside and outside the province, have carried on comparatively overall and systematic analysis to describe from the factor influencing a lot of respects of the safety in production of the colliery, use the theory of fuzzy mathematics , has set up to people -the mathematics model of systematic safety evaluation of the machine , and has put forward corresponding prevention and endangered the countermeasure of the factor. Its conclusion is as follows: 1) Thesis comparatively exposition basic principle of safety evaluation of system, is it must grasp procedure of safety evaluation while carrying on safety evaluation to probe into, divide 8 period of stage into procedure of safety evaluation , carry on safety evaluation it sets up to be comparatively scientific step mode afterwards for us. 2) The thesis sketches some commonly used appraisal methods. Especially set up the analytic approach and make a detailed analysis and discuss on the accident. 3) Have probed into risk appraisal in detail , and has carried on deeper studying to the definition , level , risk appraisal method and function of the risk. 4) The thesis is comparatively from people systematically, the thing or the environment, all kinds of several respects , such as main reasons of accident and factors influencing miner's homework dependability ,etc. of the colliery of investing safely etc. have carried on science to the accident and accident potential Analyse, various kinds of reason incidents and conditions happenning to the accident and accident potential, put forward and dispel the dangerous best technological measure, in order to offer the valuable reference basis for promoting the colliery and realizing that essence melts and produces. 5) Through safety evaluation, the dangerous source where the analyticl system exists, probability predicting the accident, accident serious degree, security countermeasure measure should taken to put forward wait, policymaker can according to appraise result choose system safe optimum scheme and administrative decision. 6) This text has been set up to people-the systematic safety evaluation mathematics model of the machine on the basis of fully utilizing the basic theories of fuzzy mathematics. People-the fuzzy mathematics model of systematic safety evaluation of the machine have much kind, fuzzy pattern-recognition model and trigonometric function type usually under the jurisdiction of degrees of model can realize safe grade under the jurisdiction of degrees of a vectorial one dispersed to take, and it is under the jurisdiction of one degree of models to superior to the triangle , thus make people -the uncertainty of the safe grade of the machine system reduce. The triangle is under the jurisdiction of one degree of models and usually superior to and under the jurisdiction of one degree of models ladder-shapedly. And value can confirm people -machine security grade of system effectively among them according to safe grade fuzzy characteristic amount.