Study On Grain Logistics Demanding Forecast Based On System Dynamics

Grain production and distribution activities play a vital role in our country, which have become the operation of the national macrocontrol policy of modernization of an important criterion.However, grain logistics mainly remains in the traditional grain logistics management system. The degree of openness of grain markets and the management system are affected by the past planned economy system, whatever the formulation of national policies or the construction of grain logistics system, which have their problems.Grain logistics demanding forecast for national policy-making and grain logistics of guiding significance for the direction of development is a prerequisite for the development of logistics and infrastructure planning.In this paper, for the needs of the grain logistics , system dynamic is used in the grain logistics systems modeling and simulation. Demanding for grain because of the logistics are economic, natural, social impact of a variety of factors, in order to strengthen the demanding for grain logistics guidance to policy makers, and at selected target, the focus on policy and economic factors, policy aspects of the policy target is divided into the degree of openness of the market, investment in infrastructure, logistics, target three types of pricing policies, and to quantify the treatment, set up grain logistics system simulation model. This model will be used in Changchun City, Jilin Province prediction of grain demanding in the logistics, grain logistics has been the development trend of demanding.This paper is divided into six chapters:Chapter I: Preface.It mainly introduces the research background and significance about the forecast of the demanding of the grain logistics and concludes the study of researchers about all kinds of ways in the grain logistics of the demanding. system dynamics was applied in the logistics field, but it did not be applied in the forecast of the grain logistics of the demanding. In this paper, we imitated grain logistics system by system dynamics and forecasted the demanding of the grain logistics. In the latter, it introduces the content, constitution and technical route. Chapter II: The basic theory about forecasting the grain logistics of the demanding grain logistics system of and to study the system dynamic theory. Through the analysis of the grain logistics system, the system dynamics theory applied to grain logistics system for grain logistics system, field simulation, the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the feasibility study, is.Chapter II: grain logistics needs of the basic theory of prediction. Discussed in this article are specific to the system dynamics method using the theory based on the concept of grain logistics systems, characteristics, as well as the existence of China's grain logistics system to analyze the problem.Chapter III: Grain logistics of building a target of the demanding forecast. This chapter provides a brief analysis of the grain needs of some of the characteristics of logistics and logistics demanding for grain which the social, economic and policy analysis of the impact of specific factors, and to be able to select the corresponding target quantified.Chapter IV: grain logistics demanding forecasting model. This chapter the use of system dynamics, the target of a causal relationship between the analysis of grain logistics system to build the system structure. And accordingly set up a system of grain logistics system dynamics model to quantify the target. Changchun City, Jilin Province based on years of historical data to predict the demanding for grain logistics, grain logistics predict trends in demanding growth. Changchun City, Jilin Province, so as to grain logistics planning decision-making and the corresponding reference data.Chapter V: Chapter V Conclusion and Outlook. In this chapter on the work of grain logistics demanding forecasts are summarized: the grain, based on systematic analysis of the logistics system, based on the application of system dynamics theory of the demanding for grain logistics forecasting model, and for the Changchun City, Jilin Province carried out grain logistics demanding forecast, based on this model put forward the development of China's grain logistics policy recommendations. According to papers deficiencies, as well as the next step is to carry out the work and further elaborated upon.