The Forecast Of Logistics Demand Based On System Dynamics In Hebei Province

In the modern economy, the role of the logistics is becoming increasingly important, and the level of its development has become an important indicator of the country’s economic modernization and the core competitiveness. The level of Logistics directly affects the economic development and the production-benefit of enterprise. The logistics demand is one of the important interrelated factors of the economic growth, which hold the direction of the future and guarantee the rationality of the plan and design. Hebei province is an important linkage,which materials must be passed. Nevertheless, Some problems are existed in the logistics industry. So It will have a certain directive instruction meaning to the work of the policy and the development of logistics system which is launching currently.In this paper, the forecasting of logistics requirements in Hebei province are studied. Gather information study the present research state of Logistics demand analysis. Then, using the methods of system dynamics, the analysis of related factors, the relationship between logistics demand in Hebei province in Hebei province and build system dynamics model of logistics demand, through the simulation, predicting 2015 to 2019 the change trend of logistics demand related factors. The simulation results show that the logistics demand, logistics, supply capacity, the economic situation in Hebei province are presented the trend of steady growth, however, logistics supply still cannot satisfy the actual needs; Adjusting some parameters in the model in this paper, therefore, optimizing the system dynamics model of logistics demand, supply and demand situation and research of logistics in Hebei province. Optimization results show that the improved logistics supply capacity can be limited to reduce the gap between logistics supply and demand.