Statistic Study On Geological Disasters Induced By Strong Precipitation In Guangdong

Although it has long been aware that geological disasters be deemed the important factor to influence people's production and living environment, and then in June 2003 China meteorological administration and Ministry of Land and Resources have been cooperating geological hazard's meteorological warning and forecast work, recently frequent geological disasters of debris flow still has brought people disastrous loss. 14 October 2010 of them in Beijing signed framework agreement on how deepening the cooperation about the geological hazard of meteorological warning and forecast.It contains contents as follows: to improve elaborate level of geological hazard's meteorological warning and forecast, adjust grade of them jointly, construct refining and experimental plot of them and so on.In July, 2004 Guangdong first launched the geological hazard-meteorological forecast and warning work. Because geological disasters's forecast and warning work has just started , lacked the geological disasters regularity and refinement research, this study make up its deficiency to lay a foundation of a follow-up study.Based on Guangdong province as the research area, slope geological disasters of collapse, landslide and debris flow as the research object, the latest (11 years) geological and meteorological data as statistical analysis data, mathematical analysis as study method in this paper,the following main conclusions can be deduced :(1) Interannual variability between slope hazard and geological disaster times in Guangdong During 11 years exists significant relevant and linear regression relation. Collapse, landslide and debris flow frequency's interannual variability are of disorderly distribution. Collapse and landslide present alternant phase's change and detritus stream occurrence frequency always reaches relative minimum. it is generally acknowledged that slope disasters always concentrate and correspond rainfall flood season .But from Monthly change in recent years, they should be from 4 to 10 months and their curves of frequency are the single-peak starboard type.(2) The spatial distributions show that Meizhou (the east of Guangdong) is the biggest collapse, landslides out , Shaoguan (Guangdong's north) is higher area of debris flow. (3) Slope disasters's formation is still divided into natural and human factors in Guangdong. The One of them includes Rainfall osmosis, landform, stratigraphic lithology, another consists of slope, mining, piled load, overcutting.(4) Frequency of slope disasters caused by heavy rainfall in recent years is rising year by year. From the general analysis, the proportion of death toll, direct economic losses induced by it in slope disasters and geological disasters also show ascendant trend year after year.