| Since the reform and opening,China’s foreign trade has continued to grow,and exports have long become an important engine to promote the high-quality development of China’s economy.However,uncertain,unstable and unbalanced factors in the external trade environment such as the spread of the "anti-globalization" trend,repeated Sino-US trade frictions,and the global outbreak of the new crown epidemic have emerged one after another.In the meanwhile,the export industries in the early-developing eastern regions have relatively high complexity of industrial technology and strong resilience of export,while the export industries in the latedeveloping western,central and northeastern regions have relatively low complexity of industrial technology and weak resilience of export.So,if we continue to tap the export potential of the central,western and northeastern regions according to their existing comparative advantages,there might be two problems: first,these regions risk falling into the trap of comparative advantage;Second,it is not conducive to the implementation and realization of China’s coordinated regional development strategy.Therefore,this paper explores the nonlinear development path of optimization of export structure in late-developing regions,i.e.,expanding export industries that are not relevantly diversified and have increased relative technological complexity,so as to solve the dilemma that it is difficult for late-developing regions to catch up with early-developing regions under static comparative advantages.Specifically,this paper will answer the following three questions:(1)Theoretically,which kind of export structure should the late-developing regions choose when they are in the middle stage of economic development?(2)What are the evolutionary characteristics of the export structure of China’s late-developing regions?(3)What are the internal and external factors and the corresponding mechanisms that drive the optimization of the export structure of China’s late-developing regions?This paper follows the logic vein of "Theoretical Research-Current Situation Description-Empirical Analysis-Countermeasure Suggestions".Firstly,on the basis of industrial technology correlation and technological complexity,this paper analyzes the reasons why non-linear paths should be chosen for the optimization of export structure in late-developing regions.And then,this paper constructs a theoretical framework for industrial policy and potential comparative advantages to affect the export structure of late-developing regions through regional innovation capabilities and information communication from the perspectives of exogenous intervention and autogenous evolution.Secondly,on the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper summarizes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the export structure of the late-developing regions by using Arc GIS visualization software with the provincial-quadratic export industry data of central,western and northeastern China from 2006-2021 as the research samples.Thirdly,based on statistical analysis and multiple linear regression research methods,this paper empirically analyzes the internal & external factors and the corresponding mechanisms of export structure optimization in the late-developing regions.Finally,corresponding policy implications are proposed based on the findings of the study.Since then,the paper has been divided into four parts:Part Ⅰ: Theoretical Research,including chapters 1,2,and 3.First,Chapter 1clarifies the research background and significance of this paper,reviews relevant domestic and foreign research,states the ideas and methods of the research,and comments on the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.Second,Chapter 2consists of two parts: the first part defines the basic concepts covered in this paper;the second part is to sort out the basic theories related to this paper,and also discuss the relationship between each theory and this paper.Third,Chapter 3 constructs a theoretical framework for the optimization of export structure optimization in latedeveloping regions from the perspective of path creation on the basis of progressive analysis according to the logical level of "optimization path selection → internal and external factors → mechanism".Part Ⅱ: Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of export structures in latedeveloping regions,including Chapter 4.First,this chapter identifies the scope of the late-developing regions,and the basic idea of the identification is that the latedeveloping region is a concept as opposed to the early-developing region.Therefore,the basic analysis objects of this paper are limited to the central,western and northeastern regions according to the regional plates of China.Second,this chapter introduces and illustrates the formulae for calculating the indicators of unrelated variety level and relative complexity of industrial technology for judging the regional export structure.Finally,based on the sample range and index estimation results of the late-developing areas,this chapter analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of the export structure of the late-developing regions in the period from the 11 th FiveYear Plan to the 14 th Five-Year Plan by using Arc GIS visualization software.Part Ⅲ: empirical analysis,including Chapters 5,6 and 7.Chapter 5 empirically examines the effects of policy intervention variable(key industrial support policies)and autogenous evolution variable(potential comparative advantage of industries)on the evolution of export structure in late-developing regions.The test results show that both variables significantly drive the late-developing regions to follow a nonlinear path of export structure optimization.Chapters 6 and 7 empirically test the innovation mechanism and information mechanism of policy intervention and autogenous evolutionary factors driving the optimization of export structure in late-developing regions,respectively,they also yield positive empirical results.Part Ⅳ: Conclusions,Implications and Research Outlook,which is Chapter 8.In this section,based on the summary of the main findings,the paper puts forward corresponding policy implications.At the same time,several research directions that can be further expanded in the follow-up are proposed in the light of the shortcomings of this paper’s research.Through theoretical and empirical analyses,the conclusions drawn in this paper are as follows:1.The path of optimizing the export structure of late-developing regions in the midst of economic development requires a balance between deviating from comparative advantage and following it,and thus can be understood as a non-linear path of progressive upgrading model.That is,the process of leapfrogging industrial upgrading through each stage within a restricted technological distance,but eventually achieving a progressive shift from the edge of the product space to the core position.2.The spatial and temporal evolution analysis shows that the spatial and temporal characteristics of the export structure of the late-developing regions differ in different phases of the Five-Year Plan,and generally show a change from quantitative to qualitative.In general,there are significant structural optimization characteristics and optimization trends in the export structure of late-developing regions,so it is also necessary to further analyze what factors are driving the optimization of their export structure.3.The "active government" under the political economy of socialism with Chinese characteristics has a positive role in compensating for the market failure and promoting the optimization of the export structure of late-developing regions.In particular,the positive effect of external intervention is more obvious in the formative period of export structure optimization,in the west where the development potential and development base are better,and in the provinces where the distance from the port is in the middle.4.The core of the ultimate transformation and upgrading of export structure in late-developing regions still lies in the cultivation and formation of endogenous comparative advantages.Therefore,while exogenous policy interventions are important,the discovery and exploitation of the region’s autogenous evolutionary capacity should not be neglected.At the same time,three points are worth noting:first,with the continuous optimization of the export structure of late-developing regions,the space for industrial upgrading brought by their reliance on autogenous potential tapping is increasingly limited;second,while further tapping the autogenous development potential of the west,we need to be wary of the overreliance of the northeast as a resource-based region on its autogenous evolutionary capacity;third,there is still more space for cultivating the autogenous evolutionary capacity of provinces that are farther away from the port.5.Regional innovation capacity is not only an important driver of export structure optimization in late-developing regions,but also a guarantee to promote the efficient implementation of key industrial support policies and the full release of potential comparative advantages of industries.Moreover,first,there are significant phase characteristics in the policy implementation efficiency of the innovation capacity of late-developing regions for key industrial support policies;second,the release cycle of late-developing regions’ innovation capacity on potential comparative advantages of industries is in the long term rather than the short term.In addition,the innovation capacity of northeast regions need to be improved urgently.6.The level of regional information and communication is not only an important influencing factor in reconstructing the export structure of late-developing regions,but also an important vehicle to promote the formation of information networks between government,industry and market,and industry and industry.Moreover,the positive regulating effect of information mechanism on policy intervention variable is more significant in the 12 th Five-Year Plan period,while the positive regulating effect of information mechanism on endogenous evolution variable is more significant in the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.In addition,the positive effect of the information and communication mechanism is more pronounced in the western and central regions than in the northeast regions,which again exposes the problems in the development process of the northeast regions.Possible innovative of this paper are as follows:Firstly,this paper constructs a theoretical framework for the optimization of export structure in late-developing regions,and thus,it enriches the existing related studies on marginal regions such as late-developing regions.On the one hand,unlike previous studies that treat regions as homogeneous,this paper focuses on the characteristic differences between late-developing regions and early-developing regions in the issue of export structure optimization and upgrading,and focuses on China’s late-developing regions whose export industries are located at the periphery of the export product space.On the other hand,unlike previous studies which mostly portray the motives of export structure optimization in late-developing regions from a single perspective,this paper constructs a theoretical framework of export structure optimization in late-developing regions from two levels: exogenous and endogenous factors.Accordingly,this paper enhances the Multi-dimension,depth,and relevance of the research on late-developing regions.Secondly,this paper investigates the nonlinear development path of export structure optimization in late-developing regions based on the combined indicators of technological relevance and technological complexity,according to which,this paper provides a new perspective for studying the export structure characteristics and export path selection in late-developing regions,and also provides theoretical arguments for late-developed regions to avoid falling into the "comparative advantage trap".Firstly,unlike previous studies,which mostly portrayed the regional export structure based on a single indicator,this paper focuses on the advantages and disadvantages of the portrayal based on technological relevance and technological complexity,whereby,a more comprehensive portrayal of the export structure of latedeveloping regions may be achieved by considering these two indicators together.According this,the paper provides a new perspective for studying the characteristics of export structure and export path selection in late-developing regions.Second,unlike previous studies that focus on the economic growth function of the related diversified export structure,this paper focuses on the economic stabilizer function of the unrelated diversified export structure and its important role for the late-developing regions to overcome the "comparative advantage trap".Therefore,this paper proposes that the optimization of the export structure of late-developing regions should follow a non-linear path.According this,the paper provides theoretical arguments for latedeveloped regions to avoid falling into the "comparative advantage trap".Thirdly,this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics of the export structure of late-developing regions,the internal and external dynamics and thire corresponding mechanisms of the export structure of late-developing regions based on the provincial-quadratic export industry-level data and the integrated spatial and temporal dimensions,which might provide a concrete reference for promoting the optimization of the export structure of latecomer regions and formulating policies to enhance the export resilience of late-developing regions.Unlike previous studies which mostly studied a particular characteristic or a certain aspect of the dynamics of the export structure of late-developing regions,this paper conducts a multidimensional analysis on the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the export structure of late-developing regions in multiple "fiveyear planning" periods.Meanwhile,this paper constructs explanatory variables,external and autogenous core impact explanatory variables at the provincial-quadratic export industry level,which makes the research data more microscopic.By describing the current situation and empirical analysis of the export structure optimization problem in late-developing regions from a more dimensional spatiotemporal characteristics and more microscopic export data,the reliability of the research conclusions in this paper has been improved and can provide reference for formulating relevant policies. |
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