A Survey On Industrial Transformation Of Xinjiang Resource-based Cities From The Perspective Of "Resource Curse"

As an important factor of production,natural resources play an important role in regional economic growth.From a worldwide perspective,some resource rich countries or regions have not brought long-term sustainable development due to resource development.Natural resources have not become the leading force to promote economic development,but have an obvious inhibitory effect on national or regional economic development.This phenomenon is called "resource curse" by academic circles.Xinjiang is an important province rich in natural resources in China,whose economic pattern roughly takes Tianshan Mountain as the natural geographical boundary,forming an "embedded" modern industrial economic structure based on the natural divis ion of labor of oasis regional economy based on the aggregation of water resources,railway lines as the communication link and m ineral resource development areas as the center,Urban economic structure with administrative division as the node and life consumption service industry as the leading industry.Xinjiang has eight resource-based cities,whose GDP accounts for more than a quarter of the total,and resource-based industries account for nearly 70 percent of Xinjiang’s industrial output.Resource-based cities play an important role in Xinjiang’s economic development and urban system.Based on the hypothesis of "resource curse" research Angle of view,using the industrial economic theory,resource economic theory,regional economic theory,sustainable development theory,and the theory of path dependence theory,high quality development system,this thesis studied for the industry transformation of resources cities in Xinjiang.The thesis also analyzed present situation and problems of the industry transformation of Karamay and resources cities in Xinjiang.In particular,the thesis studies and analyzes the effect to Karamay on the specific manifestation and transmission of the "resource curse" in the two major fields of industrializat ion and urbanization.Finally,it puts forward the strategy,path and support of Karamay industry transformation.The general contents of the thesis are arranged as follows:First,the "crowding out model" of resource development and the reverse evolution of industrial structure and the "inhibit ion model" of resource development and the urbanizat ion development of resource-based cities are constructed to analyze the impact of resource development on the industrial transformation of resource-based cities;At the same time,the "promotion model" of breaking the "resource curse" and promoting industrial transformation and the "interactive model" of industrializat ion and urbanizat ion of resource-based cities are constructed to analyze the countermeasures of breaking the curse and realizing industrial transformation from the theoretical and logical perspective.The second is to analyze the current situation of Xinjiang resource-based cities and Karamay’s industrial transformation and development.The third is to judge whether there is "resource curse" in Xinjiang resource-based cities and Karamay city.Fourth,based on the "crowding out model",this thesis makes an empirical study on the characteristics of "deindustrializat ion" in the reverse evolution of industrial structure in Xinjiang resource-based cities and Karamay.Fifth,based on the "pseudo-urbanizat ion inhibit ion model",the influencing factors and transmission mechanism of urbanization quality inhibition in Xinjiang resource-based cities and Karamay city were analyzed.Sixth,the industrial transformation of domestic and foreign famous resource-based cities was sorted out,analyzed and compared to find out the inspiration and enlightenm ent of the industrial transformation of domestic and foreign resource-based cities,discussed Karamay city industrial transformation strategy,countermeasures.Based on the above research,this thesis draws the following conclusions:First,the resource-based economy has six particularities.The transmission effect of "resource curse" on economy is mainly reflected in six aspects: Dutch disease effect,deterioration of terms of trade,crowding out effect,institutional weakening effect,locking effect and island effect.Mineral resources are scarce and non renewable.With the deepening of resource development,the ownership of resources is continuously lost,which has an impact on the sustainability of economic development.The asset specificity of mineral resources development is high,the sunk cost is high,the production factors are concentrated in the resource sector,and the cost of economic transformation is high.There are great negative externalities and development risks in resource development,which will destroy the ecological environment and affect the green development.The price of natural resources is greatly affected by the supply and demand environment at home and abroad,which is prone to price fluctuations.It will cause cyclical economic fluctuations and impact the government revenue.As upstream products,many natural resources belong to national strategic resources.The government has strong control,and there is a certain space for rent-seeking,which affects the quality of government system.The burial and dispersion of natural resources will affect the layout of resource-based cities and restrict the exertion of urban agglomerat ion effect.Second,as a typical resource-based city in Xinjiang,Karamay’s industrial transformation faces the dual test of internal structural quality problems and external transformation environment,and the national policy,transformation basis and location advantages bring opportunit ies.Karamay has a single industr ial structure,with the secondary industry occupying an absolute dominant posit ion for a long t ime,the development of the primary industry is lagging behind,the development of the tertiary industry is not at a high level,and the development of producer services is lagging behind but fast.Resource development has resulted in the dispersion of urban layout,the disharmony of management mechanism and the decline of openness in Karamay city,and the development of urban agglomeration function has been inhibited.Third,Karamay has the phenomenon of "resource curse".Overall,the quality of economic development,namely green total factor productivity,will decrease by 0.007824% when the intensity of resource development in Xinjiang increases by 1%.The effect of "resource curse" in Karamay is lower than that in Xinjiang as a whole.Every 1% increase in resource development intensity,the quality of economic development will decrease by 0.003711%,and the degree of its effect changed around 2010.The "curse" effect of Karamay affects the quality of economic development mainly through the extrusion of human capital and the negative effect of market environment and economic openness.Fourth,Karamay makes the region "de-industrialization" by squeezing out the manufacturing industry,and its resource development makes the industrial structure reverse evolution by squeezing out the manufacturing industry,spilling over the service industry,squeezing out human capital and science and technology,and squeezing out privat e enterprises.Based on the analysis of panel data of resource-based cities in Xinjiang,resource development squeezes out the input level of manufacturing industry through factor flow,consumption effect and island effect.The salary of the mining industry employees in Karamay is 13.53% higher than that of the manufacturing industry employees,and the service industry is more than20 percentage points lower than the national proportion.The overall resource dependence degree is rising,and the risk of industrial transformation is high.Fifth,the employment absorption effect of resource industry is not high,which has adverse impact on the transformation of Xinjiang resource-based cities and Karamay.The impact level of resource development on land urbanizat ion in Xinjiang is signif icantly higher than that of population urbanizat ion.For every 10% increase in resource dependence,the population urbanizat ion rate increases by 0.15 units and the land urbanization rate increases by 0.6 units.The characteris tic of "transforming land without transforming people" is obvious.The resource industry of Karamay city has insufficient absorption capacity of labor force,slow growth of employment opportunities,weak driving effect of city on regional economy,weak driving effect of industrial sector on employment,prominent development characteristics of "high growth and low employment",and the phenomenon of "pseudo urbanizat ion".Sixth,Karamay’s industrial transformation should consider the industry itself and urban development as a whole,focus on the cracking of "deindustrializat ion" and "pseudo-urbanization",do a good job in the choice of leading industry,through the implementat ion of regional interaction,interactive city interaction,interaction between,people strategy.Karamay will promote the extension of resource-based industries,support the development of manufacturing industries,strengthen modern agriculture and service industries,strive to achieve a positive interaction between industrial transformation and urban transformation,and provide solid support and guarantee for industrial transformation by improving urban layout,promoting regional integrat ion,transforming government functions,planning major projects,and improving systems and mechanisms.