| Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,in order to promote food production and ensure food security,China has constantly adjusted and improved its financial grain support policy,realizing the transformation of "from single to multiple,from taking more and less to taking more and less",forming a relatively complete policy support system and making great contributions to ensuring national food security.At present,the world is hit by the COVID-19 pandemic,the environment at home and abroad is becoming increasingly complex,some countries have imposed restrictions on food exports,the sources and risk points of global instability have increased significantly,and the food supply order is facing challenges.All these have once again sounded the alarm for us to stabilize food production and ensure food security.At the Fifth Plenary Session of the19 th CPC Central Committee,it was proposed that "we should improve the agricultural support and protection system to ensure national food security as the bottom line." With a view to supporting the long-term strategic need of national food security,it is very important to analyze the effect of the financial grain support policy,further find out the mechanism of the financial policy promoting grain production and ensuring food security,and propose some suggestions for adjustment and optimization of the future financial grain support policy.In recent years,domestic and foreign scholars have done a lot of research on the fiscal grain support policy,which provides a rich basis for the research of this paper and methods for reference.In order to further clarify the mechanism and implementation effect of China’s fiscal grain support policy,this paper first constructed a theoretical analysis framework from the perspectives of inducement of fiscal grain support policy’s effect on grain production,theoretical analysis of farmers’ planting decision-making behavior,influence mechanism of fiscal grain support policy on grain production and economic analysis.Secondly,on the basis of reviewing relevant literature at home and abroad,sorting out the evolution course of China’s fiscal grain support policy in recent years,and analyzing the input of fiscal grain support policy,the evolution logic and implementation effect of China’s fiscal grain support policy are evaluated.Thirdly,taking Jiangxi Province as a major grain-producing area,based on the panel data of counties in Jiangxi Province from 2014 to 2019,this paper analyzed the spatial differentiation characteristics and spatial agglomeration characteristics of grain production and fiscal grain input in Jiangxi Province through spatial autocorrelation analysis,and explored the impact of fiscal grain support policies on grain production by using FGLS econometric model.From the perspective of farmers’ micro vision,through statistical survey,we understand the cognition of farmers’ current fiscal grain support policy,and use the intermediary model to analyze the mechanism of the influence of fiscal grain support policy on farmers’ planting decision-making behavior.Finally,based on the research results and the experience of developed countries,the author puts forward the optimal direction of financial support grain policy and policy suggestions.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on a comprehensive review of relevant domestic and foreign research results,this paper builds the theoretical framework of the full paper under the guidance of agricultural behavior theory,public finance theory,incentive theory and basic position theory of agriculture.It is concluded that financial grain support policies such as price support policies,linked direct subsidies policies,general service support policies,and non-policy factors such as household head characteristics,household characteristics,grain resource endowment,and economic and social environment can affect the decision-making intention of farmers by affecting their preferences,policy cognition and management ability,or by affecting their expected income.And by changing the planting scale,labor input,capital input,other input and other decision-making behaviors of grain production,finally affect the logical theoretical mechanism of grain output.(2)China’s fiscal grain support policy has played a positive role in increasing grain production,and grain production capacity and grain security capacity have been significantly improved.However,in view of the domestic and international food and energy market environment as well as people’s living standard and cognition level,the reality and future trend of the need to further improve food,the current financial support policy in the overall support level,matching structure,incentive guidance,implementation and other aspects of the implementation are still some deficiencies,can not fully adapt to the new changes in food supply and demand in the new development stage.Urgently require our fiscal policy to further adjust and optimize.(3)Fiscal grain input and grain output have significant spatial agglomeration characteristics.Specifically,the 62 major grain-producing counties in Jiangxi Province have significant spatial agglomeration effect in financial grain input and grain output,and the agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in low-low agglomeration areas.The scale and spatial distribution of high-low distribution and low-high distribution agglomeration area have little change on the whole.At the same time,the focus of grain production and financial grain input showed a trend of shifting to the northeast of Jiangxi.The growth rate of grain production in Poyang Lake grain producing area and Ganfu plain grain producing area is higher than other areas,and plays an obvious driving role in Jiangxi grain production.The financial input showed a shrinking and gathering trend,and most of the financial grain input was concentrated in central Jiangxi to northeast Jiangxi,that is,in the grain producing areas of Poyang Lake,the Ganfu plain and the Jitai Basin.(4)The fiscal grain support policy needs to be further improved in promoting grain increase.Among them,the investment in infrastructure construction showed a positive correlation in promoting grain production increase.The effect of price support policy is not significant,mainly due to the sharp rise in agricultural commodity prices in recent years,and the fine adjustment of the minimum purchase price,which has little incentive effect on the food and agriculture.Policy inputs such as directly linking subsidies,science and technology promotion,pest control and so on May have a "negative correlation" to grain production.China still needs to improve the input and direction of fiscal grain support.The main reasons are as follows: First,direct linked subsidies can improve the real yields of agricultural and agricultural cultivation,but direct subsidies based on the GSP reduce the willingness of farmers to transfer out of agricultural land,have a crowding out effect on small and medium-sized operators,increase the cost of farmland transfer,and affect the efficiency of farmland utilization.Therefore,it has a negative effect on improving per unit yield and promoting large-scale operation.Secondly,SCI-tech extension plays a role in promoting agricultural output,but in recent years,the focus of sci-tech extension investment has shifted to efficient non-grain industry.As a result,the more sci-tech extension investment,the more non-grain industry will absorb agricultural factor resources and land resources,resulting in the phenomenon of grain and economy competing for land,and non-grain agricultural technology extension investment has a crowding out effect on grain production.At the same time,at the present stage,the age structure of the service personnel system and the service objects is too large,and the level of knowledge structure is too low,which has an adverse impact on the effect of agricultural technology extension.The service objects have a low degree of adopting and mastering the new technology,and the positive incentive effect on the per unit yield is not obvious.With the change of the concept of food security,food security is no longer confined to the level of quantity security,but pays more attention to green production,quality and efficiency improvement from the perspective of quality safety,so that the short-term correlation between science and technology input and grain increase is not obvious.Moreover,with the change of economic development concept,more agricultural science and technology promotion into other fields.For example,in the 2022 science and Technology Mission of Jiangxi Agricultural University,only 4 out of 44 missions are rice science and technology missions,while the others are fruit and vegetable missions,animal husbandry missions,aquatic missions and other high-efficiency and high-value industries.Third,under the current policy,the investment in pest control tends to be more for the compensation of farmers affected by the disaster,or the investment will be increased after the impact of natural disasters.Therefore,increased investment in pest control indicates that the region is likely to be more affected by natural disasters,such as drought or flood or insect infestation,resulting in reduced agricultural production and,to some extent,farmers’ incentives to plant crops in the coming year.At the same time,the incentive effect of household factor input in promoting grain production is different.Labor input,fertilizer input,grain sown area,grain yield and grain sown area in the previous period had positive incentive effect.Fertilizer input in increasing food production has a negative correlation,explain fertiliser use in jiangxi province has been in the critical point,the excessive use of fertilizers can cause damage of soil structure,soil magnetism shallow,crumb structure is poor,water storage protecting fertilizer,cold and drought tolerant,poor ability of plant diseases and insect pests occur frequently,thus affecting food production;Regional influencing factors have significant correlation with grain yield,yield per unit area and grain sown area.Moreover,the positive correlation between the area planted in the same period and the previous period and the increase in grain yield indicates that the government needs to stabilize the area planted first in order to stabilize grain production.(5)The financial grain support policy has a significant promotion effect on the farmers’ grain production and planting decision-making behavior.The better the evaluation and satisfaction of the financial grain support policy,the more likely the farmers are to maintain or expand the grain planting area and improve the enthusiasm of grain planting.The expectation of farmers’ food production income plays a partial mediating role between the financial grain support policy and the decision behavior of farmers’ food production and planting.The financial grain support policy can promote farmers’ active food production and planting behavior by increasing the expectation of farmers’ food production income.(6)The level of grain production guarantee in developed countries is relatively high,which forms a relatively stable and dynamic adjustment financial support system,which has an important reference function for China.On the basis of fully learning from the advanced experience of foreign countries and based on China’s national conditions,we should continuously and dynamically adjust the policy of financial support for food.We should focus on sustainable development and ensure food security;Farmers’ needs should be oriented to enhance the sense of gain for food and agriculture;We should pay attention to fairness and efficiency and improve the efficiency of capital use.Finally,this paper puts forward suggestions on the optimization of fiscal grain support policies from three aspects: first,continuously increase the intensity of fiscal grain support policies to strengthen the important role of the government in promoting grain production and ensuring food security;Second,we will continue to optimize the allocation of fiscal grain funds and improve the efficiency of fiscal funds based on the needs of farmers.Third,we will continue to strengthen the government’s oversight and management role and ensure that all policies that benefit farmers and the people are effectively implemented. |
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