Research On The Effect Of Grain Direct Subsidy Policy And Its Influence Path

Since implementation of the grain subsidy policy in 2004,the total grain output and grain acreage of China continued to grow.The introduction of grain subsidy policy conveys the signal that the central government encourages farmers to grow grain,and the stimulating effect of policies on grain production is obvious.However,in recent years with the economic and social development,grain direct subsidy policy in the implementation is also facing some new situations.The number of peasants who go out to work is increased,which makes the actual possession and use of cultivated land separate,which brings difficulties to the direct subsidy of grain.The increase in the cost of grain production has also reduced the grain yield of farmers,and further stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to plant grain is also facing challenges.Under the new situation,how satisfied are the peasants with the grain subsidy policy? Whether to enhance the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain? What is the level of performance of grain subsidy policy? Has the food security effect improved? What path does the policy affect food security? It is of great academic value and practical significance to carry out research on the effect of the current grain direct subsidy policy,to evaluate the effect of the policy,and to put forward some suggestions on improving the direct subsidy policy.Based on the theoretical basis of agricultural subsidy policy such as weak industry support theory and positive externality theory,this paper researches the implementation effect of grain direct subsidy policy in Shanxi Province by referring to the domestic and foreign relevant research results.This paper analyzes the historical changes of grain production subsidy in China and analyzes the main contents of grain direct subsidy policy in Shanxi Province.The statistical data and the data obtained from the field research are used to study the effects of direct subsidy policy in Shanxi Province from four aspects: Firstly,this paper analyzes the satisfaction degree of farmer satisfaction with the independent sample T-test and one-way analysis of variance,and analyzes the influencing factors of farmer satisfaction with the multivariate logistic regression;Secondly,this paper calculates the performance of grain direct subsidy policy in Shanxi Province,and to compare the performance of different provinces with AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process).Thirdly,this paper analyzes the foodsecurity effect of the direct subsidy policy.Fourthly,we analyze the influence path of the grain direct subsidy policy to food security with the structural equation model.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Due to the impressive implementation effect,farmers are satisfied with the grain subsidy policy.The satisfaction is affected by sorts of factor,in detail,it is positively related with ages,agricultural acreage,understanding of the policy;however,it is negatively related to the educational background.(2)Grain production performance is promoted by the grain subsidy policy.From the data of five level 1 indicators,which are grain output,grain production scale,agricultural output value,agriculturalproduction condition,the grain production performancepresents a rising tendency.Especially,with the successive years of increasing,the grain output value performance is much more outstanding than the other performances.Compared to the rest parts of China,the grain production performance of Shanxi province is above the average level.(3)The grain subsidy policy enhances grain security effect.With the improvement of grain amount security,indicators such as total grain output,grain acreage and grain yield per unit area,have increased massively.In the meanwhile,with the improvement of grain quality security,indicators such as seed investment,fertilizer application rate and aggregate power of agricultural machinery also grow robustly.The grain subsidy policy has had a positive impact on the farming decisions.Nowadays,farmers are more willing to make investments on means of production,agricultural machinery.More interestingly,farmers now are more inclined to put energy and time on grain production than on other kinds of jobs.(4)The satisfaction and understanding to the grain subsidy policy have a positive effect on the enthusiasm for grain production and the grain security.In some sense,satisfaction of the grain subsidy policy plays a more prominent role.The enthusiasm for grain production positively affects the grain security.As an intermediate factor,the enthusiasm for grain production is tested by three methods: model effect decomposition method,multiplication coefficient test method andBootstrapping method.Results indicate that the enthusiasm for grain production plays the intermediary role between the satisfaction/understanding to the policy and the grain security.Possible innovations:(1)Using SEM,we made an analysis on the grain security impact path.By the construction of the impact path,we found that grain security is affected by farmer satisfaction and understanding to the grain subsidy policy and their enthusiasm for grain production.Theenthusiasm for grain production plays the intermediary role between the satisfaction/understanding to the policy and the grain security.(2)Using the the Multivariate Ordered Logit Model,we made an analysis on the satisfaction degree and its impact factors of farmers to the grain subsidy policy in Shaanxi.We found that the satisfaction is affected by sorts of factor,in detail,it is positively related with agricultural acreage,farmers ages;however,it is negatively related to the educational background.(3)Using AHP,we made an analysis on the grain subsidy policy performance.We found that grain subsidy policy reverses the decline of grain production performance,improves the conditions of agricultural production and promotes the efficiency of grain production.