| The Bay Area has become a focus of global attention,an economic hotspot,and a driving force in the country’s participation in global competition.In 2017,the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China officially put "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area economic development" on the agenda,aiming to develop it into an internationally renowned bay area on par with the New York Bay Area,San Francisco Bay Area,and Tokyo Bay Area.Currently,as the country transitions from rapid development to high-quality development,the Greater Bay Area,as a strategic priority,shoulders the responsibility of leading national economic development and addressing challenges posed by economic globalization.However,due to various factors,the Greater Bay Area faces significant developmental issues,with regional disparities and imbalanced growth being key obstacles.Therefore,comprehensive research on the coordinated economic development of the Greater Bay Area in the context of high-quality economic development is of great theoretical and practical significance for sustaining healthy economic growth and formulating regional development strategies in China,as well as enhancing national competitiveness.This paper first reviews relevant studies on regional economic coordination and the agglomeration-dispersion relationship,systematically summarizes theories such as agglomeration-dispersion theory,industrial synergy development theory,and regional economic coordination development theory,and defines core concepts such as agglomeration-dispersion and regional economic coordination development.Secondly,from the perspectives of regional economic linkages,regional industrial synergy,and regional economic disparities,a theoretical framework is constructed to explore the mechanisms through which agglomeration-dispersion promotes the coordinated economic development of regions.Next,the spatial pattern evolution of factor structure and industrial structure in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is analyzed,and the levels of agglomeration-dispersion,regional economic linkages,and regional industrial synergy development are quantitatively measured.Furthermore,guided by the theoretical framework,empirical analyses using methods such as QAP analysis,vector autoregressive model,difference-in-difference estimation,and spatial Durbin model are conducted to examine the promotion of regional economic linkages and industrial synergy by agglomeration-dispersion,as well as its role in reducing regional income disparities and industrial efficiency differences,thereby verifying the proposition that agglomeration-dispersion can promote the coordinated economic development of regions.Finally,by summarizing and synthesizing the research content of the paper and combining it with empirical conclusions,policy recommendations are proposed from the perspective of agglomeration-dispersion to promote the coordinated economic development of the region.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:First,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is in a stage of development dominated by spatial diffusion.The level of economic agglomeration in the Greater Bay Area has been decreasing year by year,and it is currently in a stage of spatial transfer development dominated by diffusion effects.In terms of spatial layout of factors,both the spatial pattern of population and human capital show obvious diffusion trends,and the level of factor agglomeration in second and third-tier cities is gradually surpassing that of core cities.In terms of industrial spatial layout,the Greater Bay Area has gradually formed an industrial pattern where core cities are mainly dominated by the tertiary industry.In addition,the agglomeration phenomenon of each city in the manufacturing industry subdivision is significant,but the diffusion trend is obvious.Second,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is in the period of forming a regional economic network.Under the influence of agglomeration and dispersion forces,the Greater Bay Area is gradually forming a multi-center networked spatial structure,with closer regional economic ties.In terms of spatial structure evolution,since 2000,the Greater Bay Area has gradually developed from a dual-core spatial structure to a multi-center networked spatial structure with Shenzhen,Guangzhou,and Hong Kong as the development poles and Foshan and Dongguan as regional sub-centers.In terms of the stage characteristics of the evolution of regional spatial structure,it is currently in the stage of non-equilibrium diffusion.The measurement results of urban economic ties show that compared with 2000,the network density of the overall economic ties in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has increased fourfold in 2020,and the overall regional economic ties have become closer.Third,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is in an upward phase of industrial synergistic development.The level of industrial synergy development in the Greater Bay Area has increased significantly from 0.494 in 2000 to 0.607 in 2020.However,there are still problems in the regional industrial development,such as industrial homogeneity and unclear division of labor in segmented industries.Currently,the level of regional industrial synergy development is still at a moderate level,but there is great potential for improvement in the future.To promote coordinated and high-quality regional development from an industrial perspective,it is necessary to promote the organic diffusion of core urban factors through supply-side reforms,market guidance,regional infrastructure construction,and policy-driven measures.Fourth,economic diffusion is the main driving force for promoting coordinated development in the Greater Bay Area.Currently,the Greater Bay Area is in a development stage dominated by diffusion effects.The results of the vector autoregression model show that the changes in agglomeration-diffusion level since 2000 have had a positive impact on the economic connectivity of the Greater Bay Area,and the continuously improving diffusion level has made the regional economic connectivity more closely linked.In terms of industrial synergy,changes in the agglomeration-diffusion level also have a positive impact on regional industrial synergy,and the continuously improving diffusion level has promoted the coordinated development of the Greater Bay Area’s industries,strengthening the role of regional industrial development.In terms of regional economic differences,changes in the spatial structure of human capital agglomeration are conducive to convergence in regional income levels;changes in the spatial structure of industrial agglomeration are conducive to convergence in regional production efficiency.Overall,changes in economic agglomeration-diffusion structure are conducive to narrowing regional economic differences.From these three dimensions,the changes in the economic agglomeration-diffusion structure of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area currently promote the coordinated development of the regional economy.Based on the findings and conclusions of the study,several policy recommendations can be proposed to further promote the coordinated economic development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: Establish a regional development coordination mechanism to strengthen regional economic integration;Promote division of labor and cooperation within the framework of advanced manufacturing,facilitating the coordinated development of regional industries;Define the development positioning of third-tier cities and narrow the development gap with core cities;Stimulate new sources of economic growth,leveraging the agglomeration and diffusion effects of core cities. |
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