| Over the past forty years of reform and opening up,China’s economic development has achieved remarkable results,while the deep-seated contradictions and problems of economic structural imbalance have become increasingly prominent.How to achieve high-quality economic development in China through industrial structure optimization has become a focus of academic attention.The core driving force behind the optimization of industrial structure is technological innovation,especially strategic technological advancements such as the new generation of artificial intelligence.Deeply studying the impact of the new generation of artificial intelligence and industrial structure optimization is an inevitable requirement for implementing the innovation driven development strategy,and also a necessary path to building a modern industrial system and achieving high-quality economic development.The main research content and conclusions of this article are as follows:Firstly,theoretical analysis of the new generation of artificial intelligence and industrial structure optimization.Based on literature research,define the concepts and connotations of the new generation of artificial intelligence and industrial structure optimization,and characterize their characteristics;Then,build a multi sector general equilibrium theory model to mathematically deduce the impact mechanism of the new generation of AI on the optimization of industrial structure;Finally,the mechanism of the two is explained from four aspects: technological innovation driven,advanced human capital,improvement of labor productivity,and upgrading of consumer demand.Research has found that:(1)The widespread penetration,data-driven,and substitutability of the new generation of artificial intelligence have a significant impact on the optimization of industrial structure;Technological progress is the core driving force for optimizing industrial structure,and differences in factor endowments regulate the impact of technological progress on industrial structure optimization.The purpose of industrial structure optimization is to promote sustainable economic development.(2)The new generation of artificial intelligence promotes the coupling interaction between the supply and demand structures of commodity markets and factor markets,leading to the reallocation of capital and labor factors between the manufacturing and service sectors,and promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures.Secondly,research on the measurement of China’s new generation of artificial intelligence.Construct a comprehensive evaluation index system from the five dimensions of "technological level,intelligent industrialization,industrial intelligence,innovation capability,and capital support".Use the combination weighting method to determine the indicator weights,calculate the comprehensive index of China’s new generation artificial intelligence from 2010 to 2020,and use the Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition method to characterize the spatial imbalance of the comprehensive index,clarifying regional differences and their sources.Research has shown that:(1)The average comprehensive index of China’s new generation artificial intelligence is between 0.161 and 0.222,showing a steady growth trend.(2)The development of the new generation of artificial intelligence is uneven,with significant regional differences;The eastern region stands out,with an average comprehensive index ranging from 0.354 to 0.426;The comprehensive index of the central region is lower than that of the eastern region,but significantly higher than that of the northeast and western regions;The western region has the lowest comprehensive index,less than one-third of the eastern region.(3)The new generation artificial intelligence comprehensive index in China shows significant spatial imbalance,and regional differences are the main source of overall differences in the new generation artificial intelligence comprehensive index.Thirdly,empirical analysis of the optimization of China’s industrial structure by the new generation of artificial intelligence.Firstly,construct a dynamic panel regression model to empirically explore the impact of the new generation of artificial intelligence on industrial structure optimization;Secondly,the interaction terms of new generation artificial intelligence and technological innovation,human capital,labor productivity,and consumption demand are added to the model to empirically test the impact mechanism of the two;Finally,construct a panel vector autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic interaction effect between the new generation of artificial intelligence and industrial structure optimization.Research has found that:(1)The new generation of artificial intelligence has a significant impact on industrial structure optimization.On the one hand,the impact on different dimensions of industrial structure optimization indicators is heterogeneous,and on the other hand,there are significant regional differences in the impact effects of the two.(2)The new generation of artificial intelligence has significantly promoted the optimization of industrial structure through technological innovation driven,advanced human capital,and consumer demand upgrading mechanisms,but the mechanism for improving labor productivity is not significant.(3)The "feedback effect" of industrial structure optimization has a lag effect,with the lag terms of manufacturing and service industry structure upgrading significantly increasing the comprehensive index of the new generation of artificial intelligence,while the estimated coefficients of the lag terms of tertiary industrial structure rationalization and tertiary industrial structure upgrading are not significant.(4)The "empowerment effect" of the new generation of artificial intelligence has hysteresis and heterogeneity.The lagging term of the new generation of artificial intelligence promotes the upgrading of the tertiary industry structure,manufacturing industry structure,and service industry structure.However,in the short term,it will reduce the level of rationalization of the tertiary industry structure.(4)There is a one-way Granger causal relationship between the new generation of artificial intelligence and the rationalization of the tertiary industrial structure,the upgrading of the tertiary industrial structure,and the upgrading of the service industry structure,while there is a two-way Granger causal relationship with the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure.Fourthly,the spatial effect of the new generation of artificial intelligence on the optimization of China’s industrial structure.Firstly,the Moran index is used to characterize the spatial correlation and correlation characteristics between the new generation of artificial intelligence and industrial structure optimization;then,construct a spatial Durbin model to study the spatial effects of next-generation artificial intelligence on industrial structure optimization.Research has found that:(1)There is a significant positive spatial correlation between the new generation of artificial intelligence and industrial structure optimization,with the correlation mode mainly being homogeneous agglomeration and supplemented by heterogeneous agglomeration.(2)The new generation of artificial intelligence has significantly improved the level of rationalization of the local tertiary industrial structure,but has not significantly improved the level of rationalization of the tertiary industrial structure in neighboring areas;The impact effect on the upgrading of the three industrial structures in the local and adjacent areas are not significant;There is a significant promoting effect on the upgrading of the manufacturing structure in the local and adjacent areas;There is a significant promoting effect on the upgrading of the local service industry structure,but there is no significant promoting effect on the upgrading of the service industry structure in neighboring areas.After replacing the spatial adjacent weight matrix with the economic distance weight,the conclusion is robustness.(3)The decomposition of effects indicates that the direct effect of the new generation of artificial intelligence on the rationalization of the tertiary industrial structure is significantly negative,and the direct effect on the rationalization of the manufacturing and service industry structures is significantly positive,while the direct effect on the rationalization of the tertiary industrial structure is not significant;The indirect effects of the new generation of artificial intelligence on the upgrading of manufacturing and service industry structures are significantly negative,while the indirect effects on the rationalization of the tertiary industrial structure and the upgrading of the tertiary industrial structure are not significant;The overall effect of the new generation of artificial intelligence on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure is significantly positive.The new generation of artificial intelligence significantly promotes the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure,but the overall effect on other dependent variables is not significant. |
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