The Research On The Development Evaluation And Influencing Factors Of The New Generation Information Technology Industry

The global scientific and technological innovation has become unprecedently active,and a new round of technological revolution and industrial change is reconstructing the innovation landscape and economic structure.The new generation information technology(NGIT)is an important part of the strategic emerging industry.As the most innovative,the most simulative,and the most penetrating industry,NGIT industry mainly includes the next generation network industry,core part of electronic industry,emerging software and new information technology services,Internet,cloud computing,big data,and artificial intelligence.The development of NGIT industry is significant to enhance China's scientific and technological innovation strength,cultivate new economic growth points,support the transformation and upgrading of traditional industry and stimulate high-quality economic development.Especially in the new stage of China's economy changing from high-speed growth to high-quality development,China is entering the crucial period of optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum.It is necessary to take NGIT industry as a breakthrough to grasp the historical exchange period of new global technological and industrial revolution,speed up seizing the commanding heights of future technology and industrial competition,and build new advantages in global competition.NGIT industry plays an important role in China's economic development.However,since NGIT industry is a new thing,there are many issues that need to be researched in terms of macro policies and micro methods.For example,which factors affect the development of NGIT industry,how NGIT influences economic growth,and how China's NGIT should develop?Only by solving these problems encountered in the development of NGIT industry can we promote the healthy and orderly development of NGIT industry.This dissertation takes the development evaluation of NGIT industry as a link,and obtains the NGIT industry development index through evaluation.Then it takes the index as a factor to study the external influencing factors of NGIT industry development and the relationship between NGIT and the economic growth.The main contents and conclusions of the study are as follows:Firstly,it combs and analyzes the relevant theoretical basis and literature of the NGIT development.Based on the industry development theory,economic evolution theory,technological innovation theory and grounded theory,a systematic review was conducted from three aspects:the influence factors of the information technology industry,the influence of the information technology industry on economic growth,and the dynamic evolution of the information technology industry.It provides theoretical support for the evaluation,influencing factors analysis and economic growth effects analysis of NGIT industry development.Secondly,a detailed analysis of the development and evolution mechanism of NGIT industry is conducted.The development of NGIT industry is described in detail from different perspectives such as the basic conditions,basic characteristics,development status,opportunities,and challenges.Thirdly,an evaluation index system for NGIT industry is constructed based on the perspective of dynamic evolution,which scientifically and reasonably evaluates the development level of China's NGIT industry.Based on the grounded theory,the qualitative analysis software MAXQDA is used to analyze the relevant literature retrieved from the CNKI database.Through open coding,axial coding,and selective coding,the relevant data is cleaned,drilled,tentatively analyzed,and the theoretical saturation is tested.An initial set of 60-item is constructed for NGIT industry development evaluation.Then,the screening method of evalution index is proposed using K-means clustering algorithm,which combines the maximum information coefficient MIC and the Euclidean distance.This algorithm makes full use of the advantages that MIC can handle high-dimensional data,and the characteristic that the Euclidean distance can accurately locate the cluster center.The K-means algorithm is improved from two aspects.One is the selection of the cluster center point.The average Euclidean distance is firstly selected as the center of a temporary cluster,and the point with the farthest Euclidean distance from the temporary center is then selected as the new cluster center.The second is the clustering principle.the MIC is used instead of the Euclidean distance.Simulation experiment results show that the algorithm has advantages in the number of iterations and clustering accuracy.Through this algorithm,the dissertation explores and establishes the evaluation index system of NGIT industry development.The system is composed of 40 indicators,of which 21 indicators are used,and 19 indicators are new added.Next,an evaluation index system of China's NGIT industry is constructed in static and dynamic perspectives separately using the entropy-weighted and time-weighted method.Based on panel data from 29 provinces in China from 2011 to 2017,the rationality of the evaluation index system is verified,The evaluation results are analyzed from four dimensions:national,regional,provincial,and specific indicators.The results show that(1)With the continuous optimization of government policies,China's NGIT industry is on the rise.(2)The development level of China's NGIT industry is uneven.(3)The overall change in regional rankings has not changed much.(4)It is necessary to give full play to the driving,penetration,and integration of NGIT industry.Fourthly,a theoretical model for the impact mechanism of NGIT industry development is constructed and verified.Based on grounded theory and through the analysis of correlation matrix structure and selective coding,the influencing factors of NGIT industry development were found.Using NGIT industry development index as the dependent variable,And fixed effects of panel data and quantile regression models are used from an empirical perspective to quantitatively analyze the impact level of human capital,infrastructure,finance,industrial structure,economic openness,and urbanization at different stages in different regions on the development of NGIT industry,It also provides a theoretical and empirical basis for promoting the industry development.Compared with the traditional linear regression and fixed-effect regression models under a single dimension,the effectiveness and stability of regression analysis have been improved.The regression results of the model show that each factor has different effect at every stage of development.In the initial stage,infrastructure and finance are the key role.But with the in-depth development of the industry,the role of those two factors reaches to the limit,and human capital is becoming a more important influencing factor in the development of NGIT industry.From a geographical point of view,in east China,human capital has a significant role in promoting the development of NGIT industry,and its role is increasing day by day.Infrastructure and finance also have a positive role,but the promotion effect gradually weakened as NGIT industry developed.Only when NGIT industry matures,industrial structure and economic opening will play positive role in promoting the industry development.In central China,infrastructure and human capital play a significant role,and urbanization will play a positive role in the growth of NGIT industry.In the western region,infrastructure is the key to NGIT development.Finance also plays a positive role in the development of NGIT industry.Fifthly,an analysis method for the dynamic effects between NGIT and economic growth is conducted using panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model with GMM estimation of dynamic panel data model,impulse response function(IRF),and variance decomposition for prediction errors.Using data from 29 provinces across China from 2011 to 2017,the industry development index of NGIT is calculated and the PVAR model is constructed.Conducting GMM estimation of dynamic panel data model,impulse response function(IRF),and variance decomposition for prediction errors,the dynamic relationship between NGIT industry and economic growth is studied and the mutual impact of those is tested.The results show that:(1)There is a dynamic equilibrium relationship between NGIT industry and economic growth,and the two promote each other,but the relationship is asymmetric:NGIT industry has long-term effects on economic growth,while economic growth affects NGIT industry in short term.(2)The two have different contributions:NGIT industry has a larger contribution to economic growth,and economic growth has a smaller contribution to NGIT industry.Sixly,according to the theory of industrial clusters,the spatial econometric model is used to empirically analyze the spatial dependency between NGIT industry and economic growth,while the NGIT industry development index is considered as factor.This dissertation applies methods,such as the test for spatial autocorrelation and spatial econometric model,to investigate the spatial dependence and the spatial spillover effect between NGIT industry and economic growth,based on the theory of industrial clusters.At the same time,using panel data of 29 provinces across China from 2011 to 2017,human capital,infrastructure,economic openness,and etc.are selected as indicators for the spatial econometric model.The study demonstrates significant spatial dependency between NGIT industry and regional economic growth,and they show agglomeration in geographical space.The spatial econometric model is better than the ordinary panel model.Consequently,when choosing an area to develop NGIT industry,space factors should be fully considered,and the priority should be given to whether the surrounding areas have industrial base to achieve the spatial linkage effect.Finally,this dissertation proposes countermeasures and suggestions mainly as follow,based on the study results above:(1)Support and promote the development of NGIT industry.(2)NGIT industry should be actively guided to develop aggregately.(3)Uniform and coordinate the development according to local conditions.(4)Comprehensively promote the integration and development of NGIT industry and real economy.In general,this dissertation not only makes up for the shortcomings of some current researches in theoretical perspective,but also puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen the development of NGIT industry considering the results of empirical analysis in practice.These above results offer important reference and guiding for the future development of NGIT industry.