Trends and determinants of food consumption patterns in West Africa

This dissertation examines food consumption patterns in the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). The study provides detailed information on food demand parameters, which are critical to improving policymakers' ability to make sound food policy decisions. Chapter 2 analyzes per capita food availability data from FAO's food balance sheet (FBS) from 1980 through 2009. It identifies major contributors to diets and documents shifts in levels and composition of food supply at the country level. The analysis reveals: 1) a trend towards greater per capita calorie supplies for most countries; 2) a diversification in the composition of food supply; 3) a cassava revolution in some Coastal Non-Sahelian countries; 4) some diet upgrading in terms of protein availability; and 5) growth in daily fat supply per capita for most countries.;Chapter 3 estimates the effects of urbanization and gross domestic product per capita on starchy staples (SS) demand in Senegal, Mali and Benin using an Error-Corrected Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System. Short-run and long run-elasticities are estimated using per capita food availability data obtained from FAO's FBS and supplementary data. Support for a statistical association between urbanization and SS demand is found only in the case of millet in Mali. The results suggest mixed evidence on the effect of relative prices on SS demand and on substitution between coarse grains and rice. Evidence also supports more expenditure-elastic demand for millet and sorghum than for rice in Senegal and Mali, contrary to conventional expectations.;Aggregate-level analysis of food demand ignores the effects of the distribution of income and of differences in food supply across regions on food demand. As a result, Chapter 4 uses Mali's 2006 household budget survey data to estimate a censored Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model for cereals in Mali. Cereals demand parameters are estimated by rural/ urban location and by income group. All expenditure elasticities were positive, as expected. Uncompensated own-price elasticities also support downward-sloping demand curves for all cereals. The results suggest high substitution between rice and coarse grains in both the rural and the urban areas and across income groups.;Chapter 5 measures the welfare effects of cereals price shocks observed from 2008 to 2011 by means of a proportional compensating variation that allows for second-order demand responses to cereal price changes. Across all income groups and place of residence, the full effect is only slightly lower than the first-order effect. This reflects the fact that during this period all cereals prices were rising sharply, limiting the scope for substitution to "cheaper" cereals. Without considering the possibility of producer supply response in the rural areas, the magnitude of the welfare loss was higher for rural households than urban households. In both the rural and the urban areas, the welfare loss from observed price changes, in terms of relative share of income affected, was greater for poorer households than richer households from 2008 to 2011. However, the absolute income loss was greater for the higher income groups. The findings present a scope to encourage ongoing diversification of staple food sources to give consumers more opportunity for substitution and choice. Price transmission across cereals suggests a need for a cereals policy rather than just, for example, a rice policy. The results suggest strong future growth in demand (pressure on prices if supply is not increased), and a need to focus on driving down unit costs throughout the food system.