Restoration And Construction Of Traditional Trade Routes In The Himalayan Region

The Himalayan region is not only a transition zone between the Tibetan Plateau and the South Asian subcontinent,but also a hub zone connecting China with South Asia and even Central Asia and Southeast Asia,and a key zone for constructing a security barrier along China’s southwest frontier,which has important geostrategic value.Since the Himalayas were formed by the subduction and uplift of the Indian plate northward to the Eurasian plate,transverse valleys along the Himalayas have gradually developed into the main trade routes to communicate between the north and the south,and the changes in these routes have revealed the rise and fall of the history of the Himalayan region.Thus,it can be said that the routes are key to opening and exploring the Himalayan region.The opening and development of the route have long contributed to the prosperity and stability of the Himalayan region.However,since the Western colonial expansion,the British colonialists have continued to incorporate the Himalayan region into their sphere of influence by opening and using these routes,changing the long-established and formed trade pattern between the Himalayan region and Chinese mainland and other regions,exacerbating the complex geopolitical situation in the Himalayan region and seriously threatening the security of China’s southwestern frontier.Especially after India’s independence in 1947,it tried to inherit the British colonial legacy and again encroached and controlled the Himalayan region along these routes,leaving the Himalayan region in a backward and turbulent situation for a long time,which seriously affected the stability and development of Tibet.With the implementation of China’s "the Belt and Road Initiative",the construction of the South Asia Corridor,the Trans-Himalayan Connectivity,and the Trans-Himalayan Economic Zone of Cooperation,the traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region has once again been given a chance to develop.Meanwhile,the Himalayan region will also be a key area for the U.S.and Western countries to use the Tibetan issue to contain China from the southwest,which will bring great geopolitical risks to the restoration and construction of the traditional trade routes.Therefore,how to promote the implementation of related strategies by restoring and constructing traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region,promoting sustainable development in the Himalayan region,promoting the stability and prosperity of Tibet,and guaranteeing the security of China’s southwestern frontier has become a key issue that needs to be urgently addressed.Facing the national demand for the implementation of relevant strategies and the regional development demand for promoting sustainable development in the Himalayan region,although scholars at home and abroad have made some explorations of the traditional trade routes from the perspectives of different disciplines,they lack systematic combing of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region,comprehensive investigation and analysis of current problems,and assessment of geopolitical risks faced by the restoration and construction of the routes.To this end,this study analyzes the traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region based on Chinese and foreign historical literature and other sources,combined with field surveys of the routes along the Sino-Indian border,Sino-Bhutan border,and Sino-Nepal border for four consecutive years from 2018 to 2021,using big data of natural,social and economic geographic elements,guided by theories of geo-economic,geopolitics and shatter-belts,and using methods such as historical literature analysis,field survey method,GIS spatial analysis method and quantitative evaluation of geopolitical risk.The spatial distribution characteristics,evolution process,and driving mechanism of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region are systematically sorted out and analyzed,and the current operation,existing problems,and influencing factors of the traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region are comprehensively investigated and analyzed,the geopolitical risks faced by the restoration and construction of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region are comprehensively assessed,and the control strategies for the restoration and construction of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region are proposed.The key findings were as follows.(1)There are 21 traditional trade routes traversing the Himalayan region,including six Sino-Nepalese routes,four Sino-Bhutanese routes,and eleven Sino-Indian routes.The evolution of traditional trade routes has entailed five distinct phases: an incipient period(pre–7th century),formation(7th century–842 AD),development(842–1959),decline(1959–1962)and recovery(1962–present).The incipient and formative developmental phases were prompted by the spread of Buddhism and the exchange of goods.The stability of local governments in Tibet and Central China and favorable border trade policies along with Britain’s colonial expansion and commercial interests stimulated further development of traditional trade routes.However,India’s strategic miscalculation and “Forward Policy” instigated the decline phase,while the demands of regional cooperation and development are currently the key drivers of the restoration and construction phase.A lack of strategic mutual trust and existing border issues are the main obstacles impeding the restorative and construction phases.(2)The traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region in the geo-economic context have not been developed rapidly.Currently,only 10 routes have been restored,including 5 Sino-Nepalese routes,2 Sino-Bhutanese routes,and 3 Sino-Indian routes.The investigation and analysis of the border trade market as the entry point show that relying on the restored and opened routes,a border trade market system mainly of the port type and supplemented by the town type and village/pasture type has been formed initially.The border market of the port type has a wide radiation range and good benefits,while the town-type and village/pasture type have poor benefits and a small radiation range.Affected by China-India relations,border stabilization and other factors,Sino-Indian routes and Sino-Bhutanese routes are slow to recover,the border trade market shows a shrinking trend.China-Nepalese routes and the border trade market show a rapid development trend,but by the border stabilization,traffic accessibility restrictions and other factors,the development of the village/pasture type border trade market are slow.The special natural environment of the Himalayas restricts the distribution of routes and border trade markets mainly along the fault valleys.Meanwhile,regional trade patterns were shaped by accessibility,leading to the clustering of border trade markets in towns.Though Nepal and Bhutan hoped to reduce their transitional dependence on India through the development of border trade and the construction of traditional trade routes,the offshore balancing strategy of the United States and Western countries,and India’s buffer zone strategy are intended to cut off border trade markets and block the construction of traditional trade routes.Moreover,the stability control on the Tibetan border has to a certain extent limited the construction and development of the routes and border trade markets.(3)The overall characteristics of the geopolitical risks facing the restoration and construction of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region are that the medium and high risk areas are mainly concentrated in the southern slopes of the Himalayas,and the low risk areas are mainly concentrated in the Tibetan border areas on the northern slopes of the Himalayas.Among the various routes,the Sino-Nepalese routes,the SinoBhutanese routes and the route from Srinagar to Gar section via Leh face the highest geopolitical risks,while the Sino-Indian Western routes,the route from Kalimpong to Lhasa,and the Southern Tibet routes face relatively low geopolitical risks.The restoration and construction of the Sino-Nepalese routes face not only higher natural risks but also higher political risks and economic risks.The restoration and construction of the Sino-Bhutanese routes face higher political risks and economic risks due to the intervention and influence of India,which has so far been unable to establish political and economic relations with China.The restoration and construction of the Sino-Indian Western routes are mainly affected by higher natural risks and economic risks.The restoration and construction of the route from Kalimpong to Lhasa are mainly affected by higher political risks and economic risks.And the restoration and construction of the Southern Tibet routes are mainly affected by higher natural risks and political risks.(4)In view of the main limiting factors facing the restoration and construction of the Sino-India traditional trade routes,such as the China-India border dispute,the IndiaPakistan Kashmir issue,armed conflicts in and around the Kashmir Valley,the development and utilization of transboundary water resources in the Indus River and the Yarlung Tsangpo River and other basins,and India’s continuous encroachment along the border,the following construction and control strategies are proposed: 1)strengthen the construction of transportation,border posts,and other infrastructure to resolutely stop India’s encroachment on the western section of China-India and dispel India’s fluke mentality;2)strengthen the construction of transportation infrastructure in the Lipu Lekh route,explore the synergistic development of pilgrimage,international tourism and border trade;3)strengthen and upgrade the construction of the route from Yadong to Lhasa,promote the integration with the Paro route and the Sankosh route in the SinoBhutanese routes,expand the trend of integration of border trade and tourism,and explore the expansion of trade with India via the Nathu La route in the form of civil exchanges;4)strengthen road infrastructure construction in the southern Tibetan regardless of cost,allow and encourage people living on the frontiers to swear sovereignty by visiting holy mountains and sacred lakes,and resolutely resist India’s encroachment;quickly develop tourism resources in the southern Tibetan,provide employment opportunities for farmers and herders,and strengthen social and economic ties between the border region and the Chinese mainland;make full use of the demonstration effect of well-off border villages to actively carry out national united front work;speed up filling the gaps in the geographical names on the map of southern Tibet and enhance the sense of national identity in southern Tibet.(5)In view of the main limiting factors for the restoration and construction of the Sino-Nepalese routes facing a series of risks such as frequent natural disasters,fierce domestic party struggle in Nepal,frequent political turmoil,poor business environment,backward economy,ethnic conflicts caused by the intervention of India,the United States and other countries in Nepal,and social governance,the following construction and control strategies are proposed: 1)accelerate the construction of transportation and other infrastructure to build a multi-level trade network and expand the scope of trade radiation through a trade system of "ports-based,border trade markets as a complement";2)explore flexible ways to control border stability maintenance,take into account the integrated development of border trade and tourism,speed up the restoration and opening of the Rongxia,Gangga and other closed trade routes and border trade markets due to border stability maintenance,increase the income of the farmers and herders living on the border region,and reduce the financial burden on the central government;3)the construction of the routes should not only consider the vulnerability to natural disasters and economic feasibility in Nepal,but also pay close attention to the series of risks such as the volatile situation caused by the intervention of the United States,India and other countries in Nepal;4)watch out for Nepal’s wild speculation for the construction of the routes with the economic assistance from India and the United States;5)explore the social governance risks arising from the increased population movement promoted by the opening of the trade routes.(6)In view of the main limiting factors for the restoration and construction of the Sino-Bhutanese routes facing a series of risks such as India’s interference and control in various aspects of Bhutan’s politics,economy and diplomacy,as well as the SinoBhutan border and territorial disputes,the following construction and control strategies are proposed: 1)give priority to the construction of two routes connecting the Paro valley and the Sankosh valley without border disputes;2)strengthen the construction of transportation and other infrastructure in the disputed areas of the Sino-Bhutan border,so as to gain more initiative for the Sino-Bhutan border negotiations and 3)restoring and building the border trade markets such as Longdong in Se township and Lhakhang,which were closed due to border stability maintenance,consolidating and expanding the traditional trade and people-to-people exchanges between China and Bhutan,and making long-term consideration for the restoration and construction of the SinoBhutanese routes.The innovation of this study is mainly manifested in the following three aspects.First,based on the interdisciplinary perspective,21 key traditional trade routes affecting the development of the Himalayan region are identified and proposed,and the evolutionary process and driving mechanism of the routes are analyzed,further deepening the overall knowledge and understanding of the traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region and providing a new perspective for the geostrategic understanding of the Himalayan region.Second,through fieldwork and analysis of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region for many consecutive years,the reasons for the slow recovery and construction of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region in the context of geo-economics are revealed,further enriching and improving the theoretical paradigm of border geography research in the perspective of geo-economic theory.Third,using geographic big data and methods,we quantitatively assess the geopolitical risks facing the restoration and construction of traditional trade routes in the Himalayan region,which makes up for the deficiency of qualitative analysis in spatial portrayal of route risk and deepens the understanding of geopolitical risks in the Himalayan region.