Research On The Impact Of The Northern Sea Route Navigability On China-EU Trade And Its Container Flows

Global warming has accelerated the melting of Arctic sea ice.Satellite-monitored data shows that the Arctic sea ice coverage has decreased by 18% from 1979 to 2020.This rapid decline has gradually highlighted the commercial navigation value of the Arctic routes.According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the Arctic Ocean is expected to be ice-free during the summer of 2050,at which point the Arctic routes will be fully operational.The Arctic routes comprise a series of shipping lanes that cross the Arctic Ocean,connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.Among them,the Northern Sea Route is a fast route connecting Europe and Asia.It starts from the northern waters of Western Europe,traveling eastward through the waters of northern Russia,bypassing the Bering Strait,and reaching ports in East Asia.The opening of the Northern Sea Route has significant and far-reaching implications for China’s efforts to build a strong maritime nation and advance the "Ice Silk Road" strategy.From an economic perspective,the Northern Sea Route can reduce shipping distances between Asia and Europe,resulting in shorter sailing times and lower shipping costs,thereby providing direct economic benefits for shipping and trade development.From a geopolitical perspective,the Northern Sea Route will reduce China’s dependence on the Suez Canal and the Straits of Malacca,further diversify the maritime shipping routes,relieve China’s maritime transport pressure,and provide greater initiative in ocean shipping.From the perspective of the impact of Arctic sea ice melting on the safety and feasibility of the Arctic navigation,this dissertation employs macro analysis and quantitative evaluation techniques to analyze the Northern Sea Route navigability at different stages from a temporal dimension.Furthermore,it thoroughly explores the impact of the navigability evolution of the Northern Sea Route on the potential of China-EU trade and the assignment of container flows in the China-EU shipping network.The findings of this dissertation can provide valuable reference and decision-making support for the better development and utilization of the Arctic routes.First,based on the climate model sea ice data for the future Arctic sea ice simulation,the POLARIS navigation risk assessment framework is used to construct the Arctic navigation risk environment,simulate the navigation path of different types of ships along the Northern Sea Route,and discuss the navigability evolution trend of the Northern Sea Route in depth.This dissertation employs the multi-model ensemble averaging method to simulate sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness data in summer of 2030-2050.It then uses the POLARIS navigation risk assessment framework to convert sea ice concentration and thickness data into risk indices and determine the safe navigable areas for different ships by combining alternative ship characteristics.The navigable waters grid in the Northern Sea Route is preprocessed,and ship routes are planned to use the A* algorithm to achieve the shortest navigation distance while avoiding high-risk waters.As a result,the shortest navigation distance along the Northern Sea Route is determined.The results show that interannual variability and seasonal trends in Arctic sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness are evident.The Barents Sea and the Kara Sea will be basically ice-free and safe for navigation in the coming summers,while the East Siberian Sea and the northern part of the Northland Islands are expected to become critical areas restricting ship navigation.The Arc 4 ice-class ships have a broader navigable area than open water ships and are expected to be able to navigate along the shortest path in September 2040.Secondly,based on the general equilibrium perspective to explore the linkage between transport activities and microeconomics,the dynamic GTAP model is used to simulate the impact of the navigational performance of the Northern Sea Route on the trade demand between China and the EU.This dissertation measures the changes in shipping costs of China-EU maritime transport under the NSR-SCR combined transport mode,and forecasts interregional trade under different Northern Sea Route navigational performance in 2030-2050 by quantifying the changes in shipping costs into changes in transport convenience.On this basis,the variability of shipping costs due to changes in fuel prices,ship speed through ice areas,and ship size are simulated separately.The results show that the use of NSR-SCR combined transport can reduce shipping costs between China and the EU,positively impacting bilateral trade and economic growth.As the navigability of the route improves,the impact effect progressively expands.With positive changes in economic indicators such as increased exports and GDP of the Chinese and the European Union industries,the Northern Sea Route demonstrates significant economic value.Additionally,this dissertation concludes that ships traveling at optimal speed through the ice area under the higher fuel price scenario can further increase the economic benefits of the Northern Sea Route.Finally,based on the principle of scale effect in container shipping,a concave cost network flow model is constructed,and the impact of the Northern Sea Route navigation on the shipping network and freight demand is considered comprehensively.A heuristic algorithm is used to simulate the container flow assignment problem in the China-EU shipping network.The interregional trade demand between China and the EU is converted into container freight demand,which is assigned to each port based on the weight-container volume conversion ratio of ports in China and the EU.The impedance function in the network flow model is quantified by considering the scale effect of container shipping,and demand elasticity is introduced to explore the interaction between freight demand and shipping cost.Finally,the designed heuristic algorithm is utilized to assign and simulate the container flows between China and the EU from2030 to 2050.The results indicate that after the opening of the Northern Sea Route,it will share the container flows with the traditional shipping routes.In 2030,32.0% of the container freight volume between China and the EU will be transported via the Bering Strait route,and the container flow of this route will gradually increase as the Northern Sea Route navigability improves.Moreover,the port throughput is influenced by the flow assignment in the network.The container throughput of Shanghai Port,Rotterdam Port,and Hamburg Port shows a longterm growth trend.