A Study On Impact Of China's Outward Direct Investment On Export Scale And Export Commodity Structure

After the outbreak of international financial crisis, global economic imbalances become worse and China's export trade is facing severe dilemma. At the same time, China is playing an important role in foreign direct investment after "going out" strategy put out. China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) is gradually developing as the export trade suffering serious trade frictions, the domestic market being saturated and the employment pressure increasing. Then the research on relationship between OFDI and export during this period has great theoretical and practical significance. The dissertation finds that most research is based on macro-levels and moreover it hasn't provided consistent, simple or clear empirical test methods. There is much difference among theoretical assumptions and conclusions and most of the empirical research is based on the developed countries'data. Both theoretical and empirical research about relationship of OFDI and export commodity structure is very little. Therefore, this dissertation carrises on two studies:On the one hand, it trys to study the relationship between OFDI and export scale on the micro-level.On the other hand, it explores the theory mechanism of impact of OFDI on export commodity structure and further develops empirical analysis using China's data.Firstly, the dissertation systematically summarizes the status quo of China's OFDI, export trade and export commodity structure, revealing the current problems of OFDI and China's foreign trade difficulties after the financial crisis. It describes the relationship among OFDI,export scale and export commodity structure, in order to lay reality basis for in-depth study behind. Nextly, it establishes dynamic equilibrium model based on the uncertainty of the host country's market to analyze the choosing path of OFDI and export. The concept of market demand effects is proposed on the original substitution effect, revealing a new hypothesis and its proof. The other hand, it studies the relationship of OFDI and export commodity structure on the macro-level, exploring the theoretical mechanism of impact. Then it verifies the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure using data from China's manufacturing industry, after building the industrial structure's advancement and rationalization indicators. Thus it uses China's macro-level data to validate the relationship between industrial structure and export structure, trying to prove that OFDI has indirect effects on export commodity structure optimization. Finally, it tests the direct impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure and analyzes the differences in regions, using quantitative analysis method based on 31 provinces and autonomous regions of China's exports for 2002-2007 data.Through the above study it found that:(1) The fixed costs of OFDI and the host country's market size are major factors affecting the choosing paths of OFDI and export. Due to the existence of sunk costs, the home country generally does OFDI until the capacity of the host country's market demand becomes large enough. So OFDI tends to occur after the export behavior. (2) In the OFDI's initial stage, the current OFDI often replaces the exports. However, the substitution effect only happens in the early stage of OFDI. When the OFDI and export trade are mature, the relationship between them often changes to complementary relationship from substitution relationship. (3) There exists an industrial structure optimization effect of manufacture industry's OFDI, while the macro data proves that it's highly relevant to industrial structure and export commodity structure.Furthermore the third industry's export optimization effect is more obvious than the second industry's. It shows that OFDI has indirect effects on export commodity structure. However, manufacture industry's exports did not improve the industrial structure, actually making it worse, which means that it can not be blind in expanding exports in order to increase external demand, but to pay attention to optimal adjustment of the export commodity structure. In the current, we should contribute to the export transformation and industrial structure optimization. (4) OFDI has a certain role in promoting the export commodity structure's advancement, having more obvious than FDI. General trade exports and human capital are also main factors impacting China's export commodity structure.The principal innovations of this dissertation are as follows:Firstly, it establishes dynamic equilibrium model based on the uncertainty of the host country's market to study the dynamic changes of OFDI and exports scale. Secondly, it explores the mechanism of impact of OFDI on the export commodity structure. It tests the relationship among OFDI industrial structure and export commodity structure empirically, verifying OFDI's indirect impact on the export commodity structure. Thirdly, it, for the first time, empirically studies the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure on the industry level, making the analysis more focused and guiding significant. And the index system were established to rationalize the industrial structure and advancement, a comprehensive measurement of manufacturing industrial structure optimization, in order to ensure the reliability of the conclusions of quantitative analysis. Fourthly, it uses new approach to calculate structural optimization of export commodities based on China's 31 provinces and autonomous regions'exports data from 2002 to 2007 to test the export commodity structure of OFDI and analyze the differences in different regions. And further it tests other factors affecting export commodity structure optimization.The present research at the micro level is not enough to go into a system. The study of the relationship between OFDI and export is still relatively scarce and the research methods need to be explored further. This dissertation attempts to analysis with a view to promoting the research on China's OFDI and export trade. Of course, due to the lack of enterprise level's data, it's difficult to take empirical analysis on enterprise level, which becomes a shortcoming of this study.