| Under the background of economic globalization and increasingly fierce international competition,building urban agglomeration with strong economic strength is one of the important ways to improve national comprehensive competitiveness.Urban agglomeration is the core of China’s regional development and plays an important role as a pole of regional economic growth.The western region covers 2/3 of China’s total land area and is rich in natural resources.However,the economic development momentum of this region is slow,the population is relatively sparse,and the degree of opening to the outside world is low,which has become the short board of China’s urban economic development.At the same time,the western urban agglomeration also has certain particularity.Compared with the central and eastern urban agglomeration,its overall development scale is small,the development degree is low,the urban compactness is not high,the spatial structure is unstable,and most of them are in the embryonic stage of development.In addition,the relevant policies and opinions issued by the state to support the development of western urban agglomerations have highlighted the importance and urgency of their coordinated development as the key content of the sustainable development of the national economy and society.In this context,this study takes the six western urban agglomerations as the research object and focuses on 49 prefecture-level cities included in the study,to study the coordinated development of population,economy,society,resources,and environment system,aiming to provide reference and enlightenment for the coordinated development of western urban agglomerations.Specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)From the dual perspectives of "attribute" and "relationship",the internal mechanism of the collaborative development of each system of urban agglomeration and the internal mechanism of the formation of inter-city collaborative network are deeply analyzed.Firstly,on the basis of clarifying the level of collaborative development of urban agglomeration from the perspective of "attribute" and the connotation of collaborative development network from the perspective of "relationship",the internal logical relationship between them is clarified.Secondly,on the basis of clarifying the theory of the coupled development of the four element system,the internal mechanism of the collaborative development between population,economy,society,resources and environment systems is analyzed,and the relevant hypotheses are put forward.Secondly,from the perspectives of transportation and communication networks,factor agglomeration and diffusion,spatial interaction,industrial division,system and policy,this paper expounds the internal mechanism of the formation of the collaborative development network of western urban agglomeration,and puts forward relevant hypotheses.Finally,a comprehensive and complete theoretical analysis framework for the coordinated development of western urban agglomeration is constructed to provide a solid theoretical basis for subsequent studies.(2)Based on the systematic connotation of the coordinated development of urban agglomeration,an evaluation index system consisting of four system layers,11 factor layers and 49 measurable indexes was constructed.Firstly,the Optimization Method of Combination Weighting for Range Maximization is used to determine the weight of each index and calculate the development level of each system.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree model was used as the evaluation method to calculate the level of collaborative development.Further,the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition and kernel density estimation methods were used to explore the spatial differences and dynamic evolution of the western urban agglomeration.Finally,the driving force of the coordinated development of the western urban agglomeration is determined by using the geographic detector method.The results show that:(1)The development level of each subsystem of the western urban agglomeration shows an overall upward trend,and the development level of each urban agglomeration shows obvious differences.(2)The coupling coordination degree of cities in the western urban agglomeration shows obvious unbalanced spatial distribution characteristics of "higher in the north and lower in the south" and "the coastal area is better than the inland area".(3)The coupling coordination gap between cities has gradually narrowed,and the inter-regional gap is the main reason for the change in the coupling coordination development gap in the western urban agglomeration.(4)The influence of driving factors of collaborative development of western urban agglomeration changed from government driving force > market driving force > endogenous driving force > exogenous driving force in 2011 to market driving force > endogenous driving force > government driving force > exogenous driving force in 2019.(3)To measure urban accessibility based on geographical distance and social distance,a modified bidirectional gravity model was constructed,and the social network analysis method was used to accurately depict the overall association network,individual network characteristics,and inter-city connection pattern of the coordinated development of the western urban agglomeration.Arc Gis 10.5 software was used for visual analysis,and the QAP analysis method was further used to explore and analyze the formation principle of collaborative network spatial pattern of western urban agglomeration.The results show that:(1)As time goes by,the connection network among cities in the western urban agglomeration becomes more complex and rich,and there are directional differences,and the differences tend to decrease.There is a large difference in the total connection strength between cities.Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration plays an important role in western urban agglomeration.The total connection strength within each urban agglomeration is obviously greater than that between the urban agglomerations and other urban agglomerations.(2)Chengdu,Chongqing,Xi’an,Lanzhou,and Nanning all show strong centrality.After the formation of the growth pole,the radiation effect of the central cities in the western urban agglomeration on the surrounding cities is much weaker than the agglomeration effect.(3)There are some network connections between node cities in the western urban agglomeration,which also have certain network structure characteristics,but the network density is still not high.The network structure shows a pattern of "small concentration and large dispersion",and three small groups are initially formed,namely the northwest urban agglomeration,Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,and Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration.(4)High-speed traffic and communication network,agglomeration and diffusion capacity of factors,the strength of the interaction,the reasonable industrial division,system and policy are the important driving factors affecting the formation of urban agglomeration collaborative network.(4)According to the theories and methods of system dynamics,the system dynamics simulation model of the collaborative development of western urban agglomeration was constructed by using Vensim software according to the research ideas of "determining system boundary-establishing a causal relationship-constructing system structure flow graph-determining system parameters-analyzing model effectiveness".Based on the driving factors,11 adjustment variables are selected and set in combination.Through the parameter regulation,six path schemes are designed: status quo maintenance,urbanization promotion,economic growth,social construction,environmental and resource protection and balanced development.Then,the scheme is simulated and analyzed,and the " balanced development scheme(2020-2026)-social construction scheme(2027-2028)-balanced development scheme(2029-2030)" is finally selected and determined as the optimal path for the collaborative development of western urban agglomeration.The innovation of this research is as follows:(1)From the perspective of "attribute" and "relationship",this study builds a theoretical analysis framework for the collaborative development of western urban agglomeration.The "attribute data" of the collaborative development between urban agglomeration systems and the "relational data" of the collaborative development network between cities are incorporated into the unified analysis framework,which enricfies the research perspective of the collaborative development of urban agglomeration.(2)Considering the geographical and social attributes of cities,this study innovatively modified the gravity model by combining the shortest road traffic distance between cities and user attention of the Baidu Index,accurately described the "real distance" between cities,and further introduced parameters to distinguish the direction of distance between cities.(3)Centering on the coordinated development of western urban agglomerations,this study analyzes the internal mechanism of the coordinated development from multiple perspectives,constructs a multi-dimensional evaluation index system of the coordinated development,measures the level of the coordinated development and the relationship network pattern in multiple aspects,designs the path of the coordinated development in an all-round way,and carries out systematic research and analysis in multiple ways,which has certain integration innovation. |
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