Research On The Convergence Of Digital Economy And Real Economy

It is known that the world is currently entering the digital economy era with data elements and a new generation of information technology clusters as the main driving forces.The scope of the convergence of the digital economy and real economy is wider and wider,while the depth and intensity is gradually increasing,the carrier is continuously improving and the ecosystem is accelerating to build,which exert a profound impact on the economic and social development,national governance as well as people’s lives in various countries.In October 2021,General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the 34th group study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee that the theoretical research on the development of the digital economy should be strengthened as well as the countermeasures and suggestions related to the development of the digital technology and the digital economy should be put forward.The outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan(2021-2025)for national economic and social development and vision 2035 clearly elucidates the major strategic directions of the digital economy.Consequently,the key capabilities such as effectively exploring the internal mechanism of the convergence,accurately measuring the convergence level of the two economies and promptly discovering the influencing factors in the convergence process would become the important proposition for stimulating the convergence and high-quality development of the digital economy and real economy.It could be found that the current studies on the internal mechanism,convergence level,influencing factors and key factors(e.g.innovationdriven)of the convergence of the digital economy and real economy are still insufficient.Besides,there is a lack of corresponding empirical analysis in the context of the continuous and in-depth convergence of the two economies.In response to the above questions,based on the industrial convergence theory,technological innovation theory and economic development theory etc.,the dissertation first summarizes the research findings of the digital economy in the perspectives of the connotation,characteristics,development,measurement index system,driving effects on the real economy,etc.;and then constructs the co-evolution mechanism model of the digital economy and real economy by referring to the famous Logistic Model,which could obtain various co-evolution models that may exist between the digital economy and real economy.Combing with over 300 pieces of the empirical data,the study could further analyze and simulate the co-evolution of the digital economy and real economy under various modes.Moreover,in order to explore the convergence level of the two economies,the study models the measurement and the prediction based on the Deng’s correlation analysis model and the GM(1,1)model.More than 2000 pieces of data about China’s digital economy and real economy are adopted to conduct an empirical analysis of the convergence level and predict the development trend.The model about influencing factors is constructed on the basis of the PLS-Structural Equation Model(PLS-SEM)to verify the rationality of each hypothesis and obtain the major influencing factors(i.e.innovation-driven)of the convergence through the empirical research.After that,the dissertation aims to build a two-sector theoretical model in accordance with R&D Growth Model,focusing on the dynamic analysis of the innovation-driven effects of the digital economy and real economy,so as to discuss the changing path of the driving effect of the digital economy and real economy innovation in different situations.Finally,the corresponding measurement model is also constructed after exploring the theoretical analysis model.In addition,according to more than 10,000 pieces of the original statistical data in 22 provinces and/or municipalities of Chinese mainland,we get 1650 pieces of the panel data by referring to and learning from the data processing methods of relevant scholars and then conduct a quantitative comparative analysis of the level of innovation driving effects between the two economies in different regions.The innovations of this study mainly embodied in three aspects:First,compared with the most used "one-way drive" perspective,the dissertation adopts the perspective of co-evolution to study the convergence of the digital economy and real economy.Meanwhile,the study is to integrate a variety of theories and methods(e.g.,Grey Forecasting Model,Deng’s correlation analysis model)to construct an analysis model for measuring and predicting the convergence level of the digital economy and real economy,which has been effectively verified through the empirical research.It could effectively bridge the problem of the existing research results,i.e.,"put the qualitative research above the quantitative one".The second is to use PLS-SEM to explore the influencing factors of the coevolution and identify the key factors such as "innovation-driven",when the data sample size is small.Then we make the recommendations accordingly.Thirdly,according to the endogenous growth theory,a twosector theoretical analysis model is built on the basis of the R&D model to demonstrate the internal mechanism of the innovation-driven effect with knowledge spillover as the core.Moreover,the study creatively proposes the innovation driven effect of the digital economy and real economy(IDIDR)and makes an empirical analysis of the innovation driven effect of 22 provinces and/or municipalities in C hina.Overall,combined with the quantitative study of more than 12,000 pieces of the empirical data,the main conclusions of the study could be drawn in the following:(1)In terms of the internal mechanism,the relationship between the digital economy and real economy during the period from 2005 to 2020 in general was the asymmetric reciprocal symbiosis mode,and the coevolutionary relationship has been gradually evolving to the best mode(i.e.,the symmetric reciprocal symbiosis),indicating the co-evolution trend of the two economies continues to improve as a whole.Thereinto,the convergence process of the digital economy and tertiary industry had the"industrial time lag",that is:the co-evolutionary foundation of the digital economy and tertiary industry was the strongest,which had already approached the symmetric reciprocal symbiosis mode.For the digital economy and the secondary industry,it generally followed the asymmetric reciprocal symbiosis mode and the co-evolutionary relationship continues to be stable.For the digital economy and primary industry,although it generally followed the asymmetric reciprocal symbiosis mode;the coevolutionary relationship presented an unstable and fluctuating state.(2)In terms of the measurement and prediction of the convergence level,it could be identified that the digital economy and real economy showed cyclical fluctuations in the unit of about 5 years from 2005 to 2020,which had close relationship with the issue and implement of the economic and social development plans in units of 5 years in China.In other words,the convergence level is greatly influenced by the policy environment.Meanwhile,the convergences within the digital economy own and the real economy own have continued to decrease,denoting that the two economies have been unable to achieve sustainable development through their own convergence respectively.The convergence of the digital economy and real economy has become the main driving force for the sustained and healthy development.Additionally,the study also predicts the own convergence levels both show that an upward trend firstly and then a downward trend from 2021 to 2025.Therefore,the co-evolution effect within each economy has been unable to effectively provide sustainable growth momentum to their own.At the same time,the convergence level between the digital economy and real economy(including the three industries)follows the development trend of first rising and then remaining stable,indicating that the convergence is still the major incentive for the development of the two economies.(3)In terms of the major influencing factors,it could be identified that the convergence level is impacted positively to varying degrees by the innovation capabilities of the two economies,the development efficiency of the digital economy,the macro development environment as well as the development level of the two economies.In this regard,the innovation capabilities have the most prominent positive influence on the two economies.(4)In terms of the innovation driven effects,the following results could be found in the study:Firstly,in the case of diminishing returns to scale of knowledge production in the digital economy sector,the knowledge production and material capital accumulation would grow at a fixed rate,which is directly related to β(the elasticity coefficient of knowledge output of independent research and development),0(the elasticity coefficient of knowledge output of "learning by doing")and n(the growth rate of population),but is irrelevant to the human resources and capital in the digital economy sector.Secondly,the return to scale of knowledge production in real economy is affected by β,θ nd (?)(the spillover elastic coefficient of digital economy knowledge to the real economy).Thirdly,on the account of the above analysis,the evolutionary trend of innovation-driven effects under the three situations could be summarized,including:the knowledge of the digital economy sector has never spilled over to the real economy sector,the knowledge of the digital economy sector continues to overflow to the digital economy sector and the knowledge of the digital economy sector spills over to the real economy sector at a phase based.(5)In terms of measuring the innovation driven effect,the dissertation innovatively proposes the Innovation Driving Index of Digital Economy and the Real Economy(IDIDR)and constructs a corresponding measurement model accordingly to measure the contribution of intellectual property protection,"learning by doing",knowledge spillover of the digital economy to the secondary industry as well as independent research and development of the secondary industry on the innovation-driven effect between two economies in different regions.Meanwhile,the dissertation also analyzes the IDIDR coefficients of the four regions as well as 22 provinces and/or municipalities.It could be summarized that:At the regional level,China’s IDIDR is at a relatively high level.Among them,the IDIDR in northern and eastern regions is the highest,indicating that the region has not only a strong industrial foundation but also a good convergence relationship between the traditional industries and digital economy.The IDIDR value of western region,central and southern regions is lower than that of northern and eastern regions.In other words,the driving effect of the digital economy on secondary industry needs to be strengthened.At the province and/or municipalities level,the regions with strong innovation-driven effects(also known as "strong drive")(i.e.,IDIDR≥1.25)and the regions with obvious innovation-driven effects(also called "obvious drive")(i.e.,1.25>IDIDR≥1.00)have 18 provinces and/or municipalities,while the regions with insufficient innovation-driven effects(also known as "insufficient drive")(i.e.,1.00>IDIDR≥0)and the regions with severely insufficient innovation-driven effects(also known as"back drive")(i.e.,0>IDIDR)have 4 provinces and/or municipalities.Comparatively speaking,the overall level of IDIDR in China is relatively high and the innovation-driven effects is more prominent.Finally,the dissertation puts forward the specific development suggestions from three aspects:macro policy,industrial cooperation,and regional coordination,in order to provide reference for the high-quality convergence development of the digital economy and real economy.