| With the further development of economic globalization and refinement of international division of labor,China gradually blends in the global value chain as the’world factory’ dominated by developed countries.Due to the inverse globalization trend in some western countries,the core of high value-added production links are under the control if developed countries,which leads China’s manufacturing industry to meet conflicted with the ’tremendous but not strong’ problem and occupy the middle and low end of the ’smile curve’.Besides,due to the influence of the COVID-19,the world economy remains fragile which makes it difficult for China to encourage economic growth by participating in the global value chain in the short term.However,the entry into RCEP provides a new idea and way for China’s manufacturing industry to break through the development dilemma.Therefore,how to seize the opportunity of the enforcement of the RCEP FTA to realize the advancement of manufacturing industry is of great significance to the promotion of China’s regional and global value chain positions.In this paper,we describe developed and other developing countries as the ’global circulation’,and we describe RCEP region as the ’RCEP small circulation’.Based on the situation of China’s manufacturing industry to participate in the RCEP small circulation and global circulation,this dissertation examines the various positions,domestic and foreign value-added,the import and export quality of manufacturing industry in different circulations.Furthermore,the panel data model and time series model are used to analyze the improvement of the value chain status of China’s manufacturing industry in double circulation.This dissertation is organized as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction.This chapter introduces the background and significance of the research,proposing the framework and methodology as well as the innovation and limitations of this dissertation.Chapter 2 is literature review.This chapter summarizes and reviews the existing literature from four aspects:the study of China’s participation in the dual circulation value chain,research on the participation in regional value chain,the division of labor of China’s manufacturing industry in global value chain,the impact of intermediate imports on the export quality.Chapter 3 is the theoretical evidence.This chapter reviews and combs the theory of international division of labor,global value chain,industry upgrading,and evaluates the mechanism of the influence of import quality on export quality and value chain position.Chapter 4 is the development of the position of China’s manufacturing industry in global value chain and RCEP regional value chain.By means of the multi-regional input-output table and the decomposition method of bilateral data by Wang et al.(2015),this chapter investigates the value-added export data of the whole China’s manufacturing industry and its subsectors to the world and RCEP.Besides,it analyzes and explains the reasons for this phenomenon of China’s manufacturing industry in the dual circulation value chain,and then discusses the potential and hindrance of China’s manufacturing industry in different circulations.Chapter 5 is the research on trade competition and complementarity between China and typical countries in RCEP.In view of the important influence of trilateral economic and trade cooperation among China,Japan and South Korea on the growth of RCEP,this chapter focuses on the economic and trade cooperation among China,Japan and The ROK,analyzing and predicting a competitive and complementary relationship between China and Japan as well as China and South Korea.Apart from this,this chapter also applies the ARIMA model of the time series to provide the basis and reference for the key cooperation area among the three countries in the future.By this methoed,this chapter proves the rationality of the inclusion of developed countries such as Japan and South Korea in the RCEP small circulation.Chapter 6 is the analysis of import and export quality of China’s manufacturing.In this chapter,the CEPII BACI database is used to look into the scale,structure,types and export markets of China’s manufacturing export trade.In the meanwhile,the research objects are divided into RCEP’small circulation’ and global‘large circulation’within the‘dual circulation value chain’,and it measures and compares the import and export quality index of China’s manufacturing industry in different circulations.Chapter 7 is the research on the influence of import quality on export quality of China’s manufacturing industry within the dual circulation value chain.This chapter employs the least square method to test the impact of import quality on export quality of China’s manufacturing industry in the global circulation and RCEP small circulation.Meanwhile,the robustness and endogeneity tests are both applied to verify the rationality of this model and enhance the accuracy of the conclusion.Chapter 8 is the research conclusion and suggestion.This chapter refines and summarizes the research results of the whole dissertation and puts forward countermeasures and recommendations accordingly.Based on the theoretical and empirical evidence,the conclusions are as follows:Firstly,in terms of the development status of China’s manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors in the dual circulation value chain,on the one hand,the contribution rate of China’s manufacturing industry’s foreign value-added was higher than that of its domestic terms before 2014 in the global value chain,whereas the domestic terms had exceeded the foreign terms since 2014.Besides,most of the middle and high technology industries take part in the division of labor via backward industrial linkage,especially the manufacture of computer,electronic and optical products.Although the percentage of the domestic value-added initially exported eventually returned home(RDV)shows a slight increasing trend,the share of pure double counting from domestic sources(DDC)illustrates a small decline.Therefore,China’s manufacturing industry has not been deeply involved in the complex labor division of global value chain.Owing to the obstacles such as trade protectionism set by developed countries,it is challenging for China to considerably refine its industrial structure merely through the global value chain.On the other hand,in RCEP regional value chain,China’s manufacturing industry and its subsectors participate in the division of regional value chain chiefly via forward industrial linkage,in which the proportion of both domestic value-added(DVA)export and that of RDV imply additive tendency.Furthermore,the percentage of foreign value-added contained in intermediates exports(FVA_INT)and pure double counting from foreign sources(FDC)in backward vertical specialization show a growing trend,especially in the low-tech and medium-low-tech industries,and the gap between the final goods and intermediate goods is narrowing in the medium-high-tech and high-tech industries.As a result,the number ofcross-border flows of Chinese manufacturing in the RCEP is increasing,and the mode of participation in regional division of labor is shifting from low value-added production links such as processing and assembly to high value-added production links such as R&D and design.Secondly,in terms of trade cooperation in the manufacturing field among China,Japan and South Korea under RCEP,China has obvious advantages mainly in low-tech and medium-low-tech industries,while medium-high-tech and high-tech industries flourish in Japan and South Korea.Additionally,China and Japan share similarities in export and this trend keeps rising,whereas fewer similarities are found between China and South Korea regarding the manufacturing industry.In addition,China has established close bilateral trade relationship with Japan and South Korea,especially in medium-high-tech industries.Compared with the same period of last year,the trade integration index(TII)of Japan with South Korea to China is higher than that of China to Japan with South Korea.China closely cooperates with those two countries in different industries,especially in medium-high tech industries.However,compared to the contacts that Japan and South Korea have made to China,China has established fewer trade contacts with Japan and South Korea when it comes to the data extracted in the same period last year.It is predicted that although China will still share a tight trade bond with Japan and South Korea as regards manufacturing industry over the coming years,the bilateral trade between China and the other two countries tend to become and in medium-low-tech and high-tech industries.In terms of low-tech industries,China will contact more closely with Japan;however,Japan will have fewer trade connections with China,and the bilateral trade between China and Korea is expected to be looser.As for medium-high-tech industries,it is notable that all the three countries show closer contacts,and this implies that the trade relationship among them will rise to a new stage in this field.Thirdly,regarding the import and export quality of China’s manufacturing industry and its sub-sectors in the dual circulation value chain,in one aspect,the export quality of China’s manufacturing industry implies a trend of growth in the global circulation except the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products.In the other aspect,simultaneously,in addition to the manufacture of transportation as well as the non-metallic mineral products,the import quality of other industries in China’s manufacturing industry is also on the rise,particularly in the low-tech and high-tech industries.In the other aspect,in the RCEP small circulation,the import and export quality of China’s manufacturing has been generally higher than that in global value chain over the past few years.Except for a few industries such as the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and preparations,most industries achieve remarkable growth in the export quality index.Apart from the manufacture of transportation and wood products,the quality of imports of other industries also reveals a rising tendency simultaneously.Under this circumstance,it is easier for China to promote the value chain position of manufacturing industries in the RCEP small circulation,which demonstrates that China has more opportunities to engage in the high value-added production links,therefore gradually leading the construction of RCEP regional value chain.Finally,In the RCEP small circulation,the import quality of total imports,intermediate goods and components can not only significantly exert positive effects on the export quality of China’s manufacturing sector,but will drive the promotion in the export quality and the value chain position in the world as well.In contrast,in the global circulation,the empirical evidence of all types of products in China’s manufacturing industry performs weak influence on the export quality.Consequently,it is tough for China to extend to both sides of the ’smile curve’ only through the global value chain,while it may effectively promote the export quality and the global value chain position by deeply embedding in the RCEP regional value chain. |
