Research On The Influencing Factors And Trade Effects In The Construction Of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor

Since China put forward the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative in 2013,the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor has been an important fulcrum of the Silk Road construction.After years of development,the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has developed a landmark project among the several economic corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative.Similarly,the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor,as a well-developed project,has produced specific effects.It is worth discussing which positive influencing factors are included.Based on the theory of regional integration,comparative advantage,channel economy,new economic geography and other theoretical frameworks,this paper analyzes the trade mechanism of China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor,calculates the trade combination index,obtains the advantages and disadvantages of the index.It also makes a comparison and analyzes the trade complementarity index so that it can conduct an empirical study on the trade complementarity of export products of different types between China,Mongolia and Russia.It is concluded that China,Mongolia and Russia are highly complementary in export categories.In particular,agricultural products showed high complementarity,while manufactured goods such as textiles,clothing,machinery and equipment showed a rapid increase from low complementarity to high index.In the trade relations between China and Mongolia,the complementarity index has always been at a low level.However,with the increasing consumption level of Mongolian people,the trade complementarity of the 8th category products has been enhanced year by year,and the demand for labor-intensive consumer goods manufacturing industry with Chinense comparative advantages has been increasing.All these provide a basis for the three countries to adjust their trade structure and choose to develop non-energy and mineral trade.Next,this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for trade and investment facilitation to measure the trade facilitation level of 41 countries along the Eurasian routes that have close trade links with the three countries and participate in the construction of the "Belt and Road" Initiative.Moreover,this part uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to conduct a "post hoc" analysis of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.The measured trade facilitation level,tariff level,technological progress level and whether a dummy variable has signed regional trade agreements are taken as the inefficiency items to study the trade influencing factors of the three countries respectively,and to measure the trade efficiency and trade potential.The data results show that among the trade factors,in addition to the traditional country size,distance between countries and other factors are significant,the signing of trade agreements(except Mongolia),technological progress,trade facilitation and other factors have a restraining effect on the inefficiency,which can promote the trade between countries well.These common factors should become the cooperation focus and development direction of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic corridor construction.In addition,from the data level,the tariff factor is not significant,which also confirms that in the current environment where the tariff level is generally low among countries,simple tariff reduction may be more of an impact on the territory of the customs,and the promotion effect on trade is not obvious.Efforts should be made to sign trade agreements and fully coordinate multiple factors to form a joint force to promote the development of trade.In terms of trade efficiency and trade potential,the trade efficiency of the three countries in the Economic corridor against other countries in the sample is generally below 50%.This indicates that the trade activities of the three countries have huge room for development.It is also a realistic requirement for accelerating FTA negotiations,reducing non-tariff barriers,improving trade facilitation and strengthening technical cooperation.Based on the positive correlation between trade facilitation level,technological progress level and regional trade agreement and the trade flow of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic corridor,the GTAP model is used to simulate and predict the trade effect of the three countries’ participation in the economic corridor construction.First,from the perspective of signing regional trade agreements,since the free trade agreement between China and Mongolia has already in the negotiation stage,this paper assumes that China-Mongolia-Russia free Trade area will be gradually established on the basis of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic corridor in the future,and scenario one is set up accordingly.From the perspective of trade facilitation level,based on the trade facilitation index of more than ten years calculated in Chapter 5,scenario two is set for calculating the growth rate.Then,according to the number of valid patents in China,Mongolia and Russia,the changes in technological level of each country were measured.Scenario three was set through the average annual growth rate of Mongolia and Russia in the data calculation of the World Intellectual Property Organization from 2011 to 2020,and the three scenarios were compared as impact inference simulation to obtain the analysis conclusions by country and by product category.Based on the above quantitative and qualitative comprehensive analysis,the following suggestions are given.We will comprehensively enhance trade facilitation,build a multi-connectivity environment with trade facilitation at its core,establish an integrated customs clearance system along the Belt and Road,strengthen cross-border customs supervision cooperation,realize a bilateral and multilateral cooperation framework between China and Mongolia-Russia on customs information authentication,mutual recognition of supervision,inspection and quarantine.China and Mongolia-Russia have strong trade complementarity,explore trade potential,and seek trade cooperation in non-energy fields.Particular attention will be paid to cooperation in the following areas,such as transportation and trade,agricultural trade,communications,textile industry,new energy and high-tech,so as to transform the trade structure between China and Russia and promote the economic transformation and structural adjustment between China and Russia.It is a future trend to give priority to the construction of China-Mongolia-Russia free trade area within the framework of "Shanghai Cooperation".For example,the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement(FTA)has entered version 2.0,which will eventually boost the economic and trade development of China-Mongolia-Russia through trade and investment liberalization and facilitation.