Study On The Efficiency And Potential Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And Russia And Mongolia Under The Background Of Economic Corridor Construction

Since the initiative of jointly building the "Belt and Road" was put forward in 2013,China has always adhered to the principle of "mutual consultation,joint construction and sharing",adhered to the concept of "openness,green and integrity",built an international cooperation platform for broad participation,and promoted the joint construction of national economic and social development.The "China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor" is an important strategic cooperation area in the "Belt and Road" economic cooperation,which has played a positive role in the implementation of the goals and tasks of the initiative of jointly building an international corridor and an economic corridor.However,in the process of agricultural trade development in the "China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor",it is also subject to severe challenges and tests in many aspects and fields.Under the background of the new era,how to give full play to China’s agricultural advantages and international competitiveness,strengthen the diversified cooperation with Russia and Mongolia in agricultural trade,and actively seek the development space of international trade cooperation to promote China’s agricultural superior production capacity,has certain practical significance.With the construction of "China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor" as the background,this paper studies the agricultural product trade between China and Russia and Mongolia from the perspective of trade efficiency and trade potential on the basis of relevant trade theories and empirical research.Based on the relevant data of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia from 2001 to 2021,this paper analyzes the characteristics of agricultural products trade by using index models such as comparative advantage,complementarity,intra industry trade,and trade intensity,so as to deepen the comprehensive understanding of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia.Through the trade characteristics,it reveals the changing trend of the scale and structure of the trade between China and Russia and Mongolia,and puts forward the opportunities and challenges of the trade between China and Russia and Mongolia in agricultural products.Using the extended gravity model and the stochastic frontier gravity model,it is analyzed that economic scale,population size,WTO,liner transport connectivity are the main factors affecting agricultural trade.The stochastic frontier gravity model is used to measure the non efficiency of trade and explore the reasons for the difference between the efficiency of agricultural products trade and the actual trade volume between China and Russia and Mongolia.Through the measurement of trade flow,trade margin and trade forecast,the potential of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia is studied and judged.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the efficiency and potential of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia under the background of the construction of the "China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor",with a view to providing practical decision-making reference for promoting regional integration and the sustainable development of China’s agricultural products trade.The specific research of this paper is as follows:The research on the characteristics of agricultural trade between China and Russia and Mongolia shows that the comparative advantage of agricultural products between China and Russia is declining,and the comparative advantage of Russian agricultural products will exceed China in the future.China’s agricultural products have a strong competitive advantage in Mongolia,which takes animal husbandry related agriculture as an important export advantage.The trade of agricultural products between China and Russia and Mongolia is complementary on the whole,but the agricultural products exported from Russia to China are not always complementary in structure.From the perspective of complementarities and verticality of trade,there is more complementarities in the trade between China and Russia and Mongolia,while the intra industry trade tends to be vertical.At the same time,in terms of trade intensity of agricultural products,despite changes in time,the overall trade between China and Russia and Mongolia is complementary,and there is still much room for growth in the trade of agricultural products in some categories.The research on the scale,structure,opportunities and challenges of China’s agricultural trade with Russia and Mongolia shows that the overall scale of China’s agricultural trade with Russia and Mongolia is on the rise,but China is in a trade deficit.The trade structure of agricultural products between China and Russia and Mongolia is stable and concentrated,and China’s horticultural products and bulk agricultural products have obvious export advantages with Russia and Mongolia.Bilateral trade in agricultural products is highly complementary and changes with time.The agricultural trade between China and Russia and Mongolia has a good foundation formed for many years,but also faces unprecedented practical challenges.The limitations of the production capacity of Russia and Mongolia,the relative concentration of trade categories and products,the backward transportation infrastructure,the government laws and customs barriers have become major obstacles to the development of agricultural trade between China and Russia and Mongolia.The research on the trade efficiency of agricultural products between China and Russia and Mongolia shows that China and Russia have always maintained a relatively high import trade growth trend,and the trade efficiency has maintained a relatively stable relationship.The trade volume between the two countries is huge,and the space for trade exports is large.The efficiency of China’s import trade of agricultural products to Mongolia is relatively stable.Since 2009,the value of trade efficiency has gradually increased from 0.1 to 0.25,maintaining a state of gradual increase.With the promotion of the construction of the "China Mongolia Russia Economic Corridor",the scale of bilateral trade has been expanding,and the trade efficiency has also been improved.The trade efficiency between China and Russia and Mongolia is directly related to the development of the actual trade volume,and there is much room for improvement in trade efficiency.The research on the trade potential of agricultural products between China and Russia and Mongolia shows that: first,China and Russia belong to the growth type import trade potential,and Mongolia belong to the mature type import trade potential.From a vertical perspective,specifically,China’s agricultural trade with Russia and Mongolia has huge export potential.Second,the intensive margin of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia is greater than the expansion margin.New varieties of Chinese agricultural products enter the Russian market,but the trade value increment is insufficient;The expansion margin of Mongolia is relatively large,but the intensive margin of product varieties is less than the intensive margin of product value.The trade of agricultural products between China and Mongolia is not the entry of raw products,and there is trade barrier resistance.Third,based on the forecast of agricultural trade volume between China and Russia and Mongolia from 2022 to2026,the overall import trend is growing,but the export trend of some agricultural trade volume is declining.Therefore,the expansion margin of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia should be improved,the corresponding trade structure and policy should be adjusted,and the potential of agricultural products export trade should be explored.Finally,based on the results of theoretical discussion and empirical analysis,it is found that there are some problems in the trade process,such as differences in policy environment,backward infrastructure,asymmetric trade relations,unbalanced dependence,and single product structure.Therefore,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from six aspects:improving cooperation mechanism,improving trade facilitation level,promoting infrastructure and logistics system construction,expanding trade scale of agricultural products with comparative advantages,developing intra industry trade of agricultural products,and improving trade efficiency and trade potential to provide reference for the orderly development of agricultural products trade between China and Russia and Mongolia.