Research On The Spatio-temporal Evolution Of Land Disputes In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

Land disputes occur frequently due to the gradual changes in the rural economic pattern and the further acceleration of the process of urbanization,which seriously affect the people’s happy life,the high-quality economic development and the long-term stability of whole society,posing major challenges to public management at current stage.Based on existing research results of domestic and foreign land disputes and the status quo of social and economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,this paper takes the realistic needs of building a safe China as a logical starting point,and closely focuses on the main line of research on the temporal and spatial evolution of land disputes.First of all,it defines the relevant basic concepts and explains the social combustion theory,system dynamics theory and spatial econometrics theory needed in this study.Secondly,it discusses the spatio-temporal evolution mechanism of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from three aspects: the basis of the temporal and spatial evolution of land disputes,the dynamics of the temporal and spatial evolution of land disputes,and the path of the temporal and spatial evolution of land disputes.Then,the analysis is carried out at the empirical level applying the idea of "characteristics of time evolution-process of spatial evolution".Specifically,the first is to use Java Script scripting language to crawl the judgment documents related to land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from2014 to 2020 on the China Judgment Document Network,and use Python to extract a total of 13101 judgment documents that conform to this research to establish a case system for land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt;The second is to analyze the time evolution characteristics of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt through descriptive methods,kernel density estimation methods,and Python text mining methods;The third is to use spatial interpolation,standard deviation,coefficient of variation and spatial Theil index,and exploratory spatial data analysis models as well as the center of gravity model to describe the spatial evolution process of land disputes.Finally,a spatiotemporal geographic weighted regression model is used to identify the five core influencing factors affecting land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the overall and local dimensions,explore the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the fitting coefficients of each influencing factor at the global and local scales,and scientifically analyze each impact of factors on land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.(1)In terms of the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the evolution basis is divided into two parts: participants and land incidents.Natural persons in different periods and regions have individual differences and are mostly male.Different levels of local governments,mostly municipal governments and county-level governments,are involved in different regions and different periods.Common land disputes are civil cases,manifested in land-related ownership disputes,contract disputes,compensation disputes,etc.The evolutionary power is divided into economic subsystem and supervisory subsystem.Land disputes and economic subsystem form a positive feedback chain,and land disputes and supervisory subsystem form a negative feedback chain.The evolution path is divided into a linear evolution path and an iterative evolution path.The linear evolution path is as follows: land use activities lead to damage to a party’s interests,dissatisfaction accumulates,and land disputes arise as a result,then land income is negotiated and related rules are modified.The iterative evolution path is as follows: land use activities lead to damage to a party’s interests,dissatisfaction accumulates,and land disputes arise as a result,then both parties negotiate and one party dissatisfies,after several appeals and negotiation land disputes are settled finally.(2)In terms of the time evolution characteristics of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,from the perspective of quantitative evolution characteristics in the overall scale,first,the number of land disputes fluctuates greatly,showing an unstable "waveshaped" evolution trend,which occurs mostly in the second half of the year.Second,land disputes evolve in multi-polarity.Taking 2018 as the time cut-off point,it can be divided into two time periods,with different development levels and different spreading speeds in different time periods.The third is that the number of rural land disputes is greater than that in urban areas.In terms of local scales,the number of land disputes is largest in upstream regions,followed by middle-stream regions and then downstream regions,which shows certain stage characteristics and multi-level differentiation characteristics.The number of land disputes in downstream regions shows an evolutionary characteristic of first increasing and then decreasing,and land disputes in the middle-stream regions are more frequent.The number of land disputes in the district shows an increasing trend.From the perspective of the characteristics of word frequency evolution,the five words of land,contract,dispute,dispute,and compensation appear frequently.The term community has been continuously heating up.The term medical expenses have the smallest change,and the term housing construction has the largest decline.In the future the phenomenon of rural land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt will be focused on;Land disputes are complicated.The plaintiff and the defendant are mainly Han people.The case cause is closely related to land ownership,and the consequences are likely to cause casualties.The occurrence and smooth resolution of land disputes are closely related to money.(3)In terms of the spatial evolution process of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,from the perspective of the evolution of the spatial difference pattern,the overall spatial pattern of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a relatively large change,and the spatial differences are still significant;upstream is the largest followed by the middle stream and then the downstream and each region spatial differences in land disputes still exist and demonstrate a small expansion trend;some areas have been in high-frequency areas.Land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt have significant global spatial autocorrelation,and neighboring or similar cities affect each other,but they have not yet formed a stable state,which is complex and tortuous,showing alternating characteristics between strengths and weaknesses;in the local spatial pattern,there are four types of spatial agglomerations and the sequence of their quantitative characteristic is LL,HH,LH,HL from high to low,and the geographical space presents the scattered distribution characteristics,and there is a spatial neighbor effect of "close to the red and black near the ink";the core cold and hot spots all show a certain degree of the spatial "aggregation" characteristics,and both presents the characteristics of evolving spatial differentiation.The core hotspot area presents the characteristics of dual-regional "aggregation" distribution,and the core cold spot area presents the characteristics of agglomeration and distribution of multi-regional blocks.From the perspective of the evolution of the spatial center of gravity,the center of gravity of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2014 to 2020 has been located at109.985°E～110.781°E and 28.642°E～28.871°E.The changes in the position of the center of gravity have significant phase characteristics,showing a "southwest-Northeast" alternating movement trend;the center of gravity has experienced a "fast-slow-fast" evolution trend,which is relatively synchronized with the local social-economic development level and development stage.(4)Economic factors(GDP),social factors(UR),government factors(GM),scale factors(UC)and industrial factors(LEC)are five core factors affecting land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.GDP is the basic factor that affects the spatio-temporal evolution of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,UR is the fundamental factor affecting the spatio-temporal evolution of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and GM affects the economy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Besides,the key factor in the temporal and spatial evolution of land disputes is UC,and LEC is an important factor affecting the temporal and spatial evolution of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.At different stages of development,the dominant factors and their scope of influence have obvious regional differences,but they also have commonalities.The influential factors have instability,temporal and spatial heterogeneity and variability.On a global scale,there is always a positive correlation between GDP and land disputes at different times and space locations,but the impact is limited.The other four influencing factors have positive or negative effects on the regression coefficients of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during the concerned period,with a large span and spatial distribution.There are differences in the situation.On a local scale,land disputes affect each other due to their geographical proximity.Cities have spatial interactions,and the five core influencing factors show different spatial distributions.From the results of comparative analysis on the global and local scales,specific issues need to be analyzed in detail.The impact of GDP on land disputes at the global and local scales is similar.UR and GM have more impact on the number of land disputes at the global and local scales.Compared with the regression coefficients of the GTWR model of land disputes on the local scale,the regression coefficients of such influencing factors of the global scale GTWR model are relatively stable.(5)This paper draws significant inspiration from the study of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Considering the characteristics and spatial evolution of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,especially from the analysis results of the impact of land disputes in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,it is necessary to form a dispute prevention and control countermeasure system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt which involves source prevention and control,social security and regional linkage.